Today’s Market Overview No clear direction due to a tug-of-war. After observing for half a day today, there’s still no clear trend. Yesterday’s Powell speech also carried a strong tone of resignation, as if in the months before leaving, I couldn’t manage anything and just let things go. As a result, the market had little feedback. From a capital perspective, yesterday’s ETF net outflow was only 20 million, which is quite small. The price also followed the spot sell-off in a very orderly manner, with CVD continuously declining, indicating a steady selling trend. However, orderly movement doesn’t mean the trend will continue this way—at any moment, it could reverse and bounce back. The problem is, you can’t predict whether it will turn around or not. (Figure 1)

So, there’s no clear direction. Looking at the order book, the current spot orders are mostly targeting last week’s previous lows. (Figure 2) There’s a medium order at 87.5k, a large order at 87k, and even greater demand at 86k, corresponding to last week’s previous lows at 87.2k, 87k, and 86k. These are the areas to watch today—whether the previous lows will experience false breakouts, SFPs, and absorption. On the upside, aside from the 90k grid sell orders, there are no significant orders between 88k and 90k, making the order book quite smooth. Currently, the order book is skewed towards buyers, indicating an imbalance. The path upward is still open; it depends on whether there are buyers with capital. Interestingly, open interest (OI) has once again reached a high point, with both bulls and bears actively trading (Figure 3). However, OI alone can’t predict the direction; it only shows that many are guessing both ways.

From an options perspective, I don’t want to speculate too much. Tomorrow is the monthly options expiration date, with a nominal amount of 8 billion—neither small nor large. The biggest concern is around 90k, which is still within the range of attraction and pull, especially considering the sparse order book above. There’s a potential for a move back to near 90k before expiration to stir things up. The 90k positive gamma zone (which reduces volatility) is unaffected by this expiration and will likely persist. Meanwhile, the negative gamma at 92k has also recovered, reducing the momentum to push beyond 90k.

Overall, there are no new catalysts at the moment; the market is mainly oscillating. Currently, in the middle zone, it’s best not to guess the direction and instead look for opportunities on both sides.