The role of market makers and three market catalysts that will influence the Bitcoin market for the first time in 2026

The Bitcoin market is at a major turning point in January. In early 2026, BTC briefly reached $97,000 but is now hovering around $84,220, marking a 24-hour decline of 5.76%. Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) is trading at $117.25, Ripple (XRP) at $1.80, and Ethereum (ETH) at $2,810.

Behind the price fluctuations during this period lies not just a change in market sentiment but a fundamental shift in the market structure itself. The rise of institutional financial products and the market dominance of market makers are ending the former four-year price cycle.

Fundamental changes in market structure pointed out by market makers

According to analysts at NYDIG Research and Market Maker Wintermute, the current price trend is driven by geopolitical risk factors and structural changes in capital allocation in the crypto market.

The first important thing is the political instability of the United States. Greg Cipollaro (NYDIG Research) points to the strained relationship between President Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Historically, it is said to be similar to the situation that preceded President Richard Nixon’s political intervention in monetary policy in 1972. These political pressures usually result in high inflation, weak central bank credit, and currency weakening.

With a fixed supply, Bitcoin has benefited from investor concerns about these sovereign risks. More notably, the global money supply has reached an all-time high. As traditional stores of value such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium soared, Bitcoin, considered “digital gold,” has finally caught up.

Turning points in the crypto market as seen in institutional capital flows

The most important insight revealed by market maker Wintermute is the collapse of the capital flow mechanism in the crypto market.

Historically, there has been an “alto season” when profits were generated from Bitcoin, when the funds gradually flowed into Ethereum, then into blue-chip altcoins and more speculative tokens. However, looking at the data for 2025, the rally duration for altcoins has been shortened by an average of just 20 days, a significant decrease from more than 60 days in 2024.

This shift is primarily attributed to the rapid rise of institutional products such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and digital asset trusts (DATs). According to Wintermute, these products have become “walled gardens” that continuously provide demand for large-cap assets while not naturally flowing capital out to other market segments.

As a market maker, Wintermute analyzes this dynamic in detail based on OTC flow data. 2025 has been a year of extreme concentration, with retail investors’ attention shifting to AI, rare earths, and quantum computing stocks.

The End of the Halving Cycle and Market Makers’ New Market Views

The Bitcoin halving is an event approximately every four years that reduces the reward for validating new blocks on the blockchain by 50%. Along this cycle, the market has historically experienced boom-bust cycles.

However, market participants point out that this “four-year cycle” may have already ended. Wintermute recently stated that “the four-year cycle is over” and noted that “2025 may be seen as the beginning of the transition from speculation to a more established asset class, although 2025 did not bring the expected rally.”

In the midst of this structural change, the role of market makers is becoming increasingly important. Now that the crypto-native wealth circulation mechanisms of the past no longer work, liquidity provision through institutional products is the dominant force in the market.

3 Catalysts Driving Price Increases in 2026

Wintermute and other market participants point to three major catalysts that will drive the Bitcoin market going forward.

**The first catalyst is the expansion of asset allocation by institutional investors.**Spot SOL and XRP ETFs have already begun, and various altcoin-related ETF applications are under review. OTC data from market makers suggests that institutional investors are looking to build a broader portfolio of digital assets.

**The second catalyst is the resurgence of the wealth effect.**A strong Bitcoin or Ethereum rally can lead to unrealized gains for investors, and its psychological effects can lead to increased investment in the broader altcoin market.

**The third catalyst is the return of funds from retail investors.**The shift of capital from the stock market to the cryptocurrency market could lead to a new influx of stablecoins, leading to a rebound in risk appetite.

However, Wintermute leaves a cautious comment. “It is still uncertain how much capital will eventually flow back into digital assets, and the outcome will depend on whether any of these catalysts meaningfully expand liquidity beyond a small number of large and large assets, or whether concentration will continue.”

In practice, the pressure from the tax loss sale ended in mid-January, and the unhedged long positions left after the liquidation on October 10 were also phased out. The removal of these past bottlenecks is setting the stage for a new phase of price movement.

The movements of companies like Wintermute acting as market makers will be important signals to hint at the direction of the crypto market in 2026.