January 31 BTC Technical Overview: Short-term bearish, medium-term consolidation, long-term trend intact; key levels at 81,000 (strong support) → 86,000 (bull-bear dividing line) → 90,000 (strong resistance). Focus on high selling and low buying around these key levels, with strict risk control.

I. Real-time Market (January 31, 12:00, UTC+8)

- Price: $83,900, intra-day -2.66%, weekly -6.06%
- Causes: Metal flash crash + hawkish Fed expectations + algorithmic sell-off, hitting a low of 81,000
- Volume: Trading volume significantly increased, panic selling surging, frequent liquidations

II. Core Technical Indicators

- Trend (Daily): Broken below the 50-day moving average, still above the 200-day moving average; short-term bearish, medium-term consolidating
- RSI (Daily): 38, approaching oversold, rebound probability rising but trend still weak
- MACD (Daily): Histogram turning negative, bearish momentum strengthening, watch for divergence signals
- Support/Resistance: 81,000 (strong support) → 86,000 (bull-bear dividing line) → 90,000 (strong resistance)

III. Actionable Trading Strategies (by cycle)

1. Short-term (Intraday)
- Rebound to 86,000-87,000 meet resistance, short sell with stop-loss at 88,000, target 82,000-81,000
- Stabilize at 81,000, light long position with stop-loss at 80,000, target 84,000-85,000
2. Medium-term (1-2 weeks)
- Build positions gradually at 81,000-83,000, stop-loss at 79,000, target 88,000-90,000
- Break above 90,000, confirm on retest, add positions, target 95,000+
3. Risk Management
- Position size ≤30%, single trade stop-loss ≤2%
- Monitor Federal Reserve rate decisions and ETF fund flows, beware of black swan events

IV. Time Cycle Outlook

- Short-term (1-3 days): Defense of 81,000, if stabilized, rebound to 86,000; if broken, watch 78,000-80,000
- Medium-term (1-2 weeks): Consolidation between 81,000-90,000, awaiting trend direction
- Long-term (1-3 months): Halving narrative support, 200-day moving average unbroken, trend not reversed

V. Operational Priority

1. First observe the validity of 81,000 support, avoid rushing to bottom-fish
2. Rebound to 86,000-87,000, consider partial profit-taking or short selling
3. If stabilized at 81,000, try light long positions with strict stop-loss