The likelihood of keeping rates unchanged dominates Federal Reserve expectations in January

2026-01-31 05:15:43

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Market projections reflect strong confidence in monetary stability during this period. According to the analysis of the most widely used tracking tools in the financial industry, there is a 95% probability that authorities will keep interest rates unchanged this month. Only a small 5% chance anticipates a 25 basis point reduction, suggesting that the market expects a cautious stance from the monetary authority.

Outlook for March: Higher likelihood of gradual adjustments

Expectations change notably when projecting three months ahead. For March, the probability of an accumulated 25 basis point reduction rises significantly to 15.4%, while maintaining the current rate remains at 84.1%, still dominant. The possibility of deeper cuts, specifically 50 basis points accumulated, accounts for just 0.6%, indicating that analysts do not anticipate drastic changes in monetary policy in the short term, but rather measured adjustments if they materialize.

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