Markets in Uncertainty: Direction of the US 10-Year Treasury Yield and Crypto

Crypt markets are currently navigating a season of uncertainty. Bitcoin recently dropped to around $79,000, and the broader market shows similar signs of consolidation. But the real underlying reason behind this situation is clear: the confusion created by the US 10-year Treasury yield and macroeconomic data. The market is still waiting for a catalyst, and this expectation is reflected across all risk assets.

After the recovery that began in March, the crypto market has found itself at an impasse. Prices are nearly flat, but volatility has not diminished. On the contrary, the underlying sentiment has shifted. Timothy Misir, President of BRN Research, summarizes the situation as: “Price movements are compressed, volatility exists but there is no certainty. This is a market looking for a turning point.” It is precisely at this point that the US 10-year Treasury yield comes into play.

The Bond Yield Shaping the Macro Environment

The US 10-year Treasury yield directly influences the crypto market. Currently, this yield is around 4.17%, and this figure determines demand for risky assets. Rising bond yields attract investors to safer instruments, while falling yields bring risk assets back into focus.

Many macroeconomic data releases will impact the market this week. US retail sales, employment reports, inflation data, and especially speeches by Federal Reserve officials will shape expectations about interest rates. Additionally, a rate hike by the Bank of Japan is anticipated. All these factors will seep into the crypto market through the US 10-year Treasury yield.

Financial assets are reacting to this pressure. While slight gains are seen in S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures, it is clear that the overall trend is mixed with doubts. The dollar’s weakness, in this context, is boosting gold and other precious metals. Gold futures are trading up 1.16% at $4,378.

The Latest Snapshot of Bitcoin and the Broader Crypto Market

Bitcoin traded at around $79,010 on Friday, with a 24-hour decline of 5.88%. This can be seen as a reflection of the market’s confusion. Looking at the broader market, Ethereum has fallen to $2,450, down 9.01%. The CoinDesk 20 index has remained almost unchanged amid this negative sentiment.

However, not the entire market is pessimistic. Statistics indicate that market cleansing has occurred. According to Coinglass data, approximately $300 million worth of leveraged positions have been liquidated. While this does not necessarily mean customer losses, it signifies the clearing of speculative positions. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index signals that market sentiment has shifted to fear. Such conditions could create opportunities for long-term optimistic investors.

Bitcoin’s dominance remains relatively strong at 59.13% by the end of 2025. This shows the market weight of the largest crypto asset. The hash rate has decreased by 8%, now at 1,064 EH/s. This decline is linked to the shutdown of mining facilities in China’s Xinjiang region.

Volatility and Liquidity: The Market’s Internal Dynamics

The MOVE index, which represents the expected 30-day volatility of Treasury bonds, is rising, indicating increased fluctuations in the bond market. Historically, such periods also see increased volatility in the crypto market. Technical indicators for Nasdaq suggest that the recovery starting in November is nearing its end. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin options market shows a tendency toward put options across various maturities, indicating a bearish outlook.

However, any upward surprise could reinforce the “hawkish taper” narrative and reopen the door to risky assets. Softer data could also create a positive atmosphere for the crypto market toward the end of the year. As Misir states, “Macro sentiment for crypto will remain high until clarity is achieved.”

Token Movements and the Blockchain Ecosystem

Individual token levels are showing different movements from the broader market stagnation. Streamr (DATA) has decided to incentivize its CEO and CTO through performance-based token allocations via governance voting. Starknet (STRK) has unlocked about 5.07% of its circulating supply, while Connex (CONX) has also released tokens for similar purposes. The NEAR ecosystem is active with its NPRO launch.

These token events highlight liquidity management and incentive mechanisms within blockchain projects. Layer 2 solutions like Aster (ASTER) and Conflux (CFX) are hosting AMA events via Discord and X Spaces, strengthening community engagement.

Technical Analysis: What the Charts Say

Daily charts of low-liquidity tokens like Stellar (XLM) reflect the overall market condition. XLM has fallen below its sideways consolidation pattern, indicating a broader downward trend. Prices are focused on April lows, suggesting a technical retracement scenario.

Overall, the weekly 2% decline of the Nasdaq Composite and increased volatility in the Treasury market have weakened the crypto sector. The possibility of retesting November lows has increased. From a chart analyst’s perspective, these support levels are critical breakout points.

Crypto Assets and Related Company Performance

The crypto sector’s stock side is affected by uncertainty. Coinbase Global (COIN) closed at $267.46, down slightly. Circle (CRCL) fell 5.76%, Galaxy Digital (GLXY) dropped 10.42% to $26.75, and Bullish (BLSH) declined 4.05% to $43.54.

Mining companies have experienced sharper declines. Core Scientific (CORZ) down 5%, CleanSpark (CLSK) down 5.33%, and Riot Platforms (RIOT) down 2.86%. Exodus Movement (EXOD) saw the steepest drop at 8.2%.

Hedge fund crypto companies are also under pressure. MicroStrategy (MSTR), as a Bitcoin holding company, declined 3.74%, Semler Scientific (SMLR) by 6.5%, and SharpLink Gaming (SBET) by 8.85%.

ETF Flows and Institutional Interest

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a daily net inflow of $49.1 million, with total net flows reaching $57.89 billion. Total Bitcoin holdings are approximately 1.31 million BTC. Spot Ethereum ETFs, however, show a different picture: daily net outflows of $19.4 million, with total net flows at $13.11 billion. Total Ethereum holdings are around 6.32 million ETH.

These figures indicate that institutional interest remains concentrated on Bitcoin, while caution persists regarding Ethereum. Continuous inflows into spot BTC ETFs suggest long-term buying pressure, whereas outflows from Ethereum may reflect short-term position management.

What Are the Highlights? Market Development Scenarios

The crypto market remains under macroeconomic control. The US 10-year Treasury yield will continue to guide the coming weeks. Statements from Federal Reserve officials and inflation data will shape this yield.

In the short term, volatility is likely to persist. However, the completion of cleansing and liquidity adjustments provides a more solid foundation for the market. As Misir emphasizes, “Any upward surprise could bring risk assets back,” with the US 10-year Treasury yield serving as a key indicator.

For long-term investors, this period could present opportunities for strengthening Ethereum and other blockchain solutions. Bitcoin’s dominance remains strong, while layer 2 solutions and application layers are attracting technological attention. While the market awaits catalysts, this period offers a window for good positioning.