#加密市场回调 The crypto world stages a "stunning reversal," Bitcoin returns to $70,000, reclaiming lost ground!

Following the severe single-day crash on February 5th (Thursday), the worst since the 2022 FTX collapse, Bitcoin has entered a strong rebound mode. On February 6th (Friday), it surged sharply, climbing from an intraday low near $61,000 and ultimately surpassing the $70,000 mark, with a daily increase of nearly 15%, almost recovering all of Thursday’s losses, causing many investors who panicked and sold during the plunge to regret their decisions. As of the early morning of February 7th, Bitcoin remained around $70,500 with sideways fluctuations. The cryptocurrency market also warmed up, with mainstream coins like Ethereum and Dogecoin rebounding, and market sentiment quickly shifting from extreme panic to cautious optimism. Many are wondering: why did Bitcoin suddenly stage a comeback? How crazy have the recent ups and downs been? Will it continue to rise? Is now a good time to buy the dip?

1. First, look at the data: a five-day overview of gains and losses, with volatility exceeding expectations
In these five days (2.2-2.7), Bitcoin’s movement has been a rollercoaster, from oscillating downward to a single-day crash, then a desperate rebound, with every step gripping investors’ hearts.
Core of the volatility: Over these five days, Bitcoin’s total decline was about 8.2%, but it experienced extreme oscillations of “crash-rebound,” especially with a 13.09% drop on Thursday and a 14.77% rebound on Friday. The intraday high-low differences exceeded $10,000, setting recent records for volatility, fully demonstrating Bitcoin’s “high risk, high volatility” speculative nature.
Liquidation situation: On Thursday’s crash day, over 170,000 traders were liquidated within 24 hours, with total liquidation exceeding $250 million; after the rebound on Friday, some short positions were cleared, but over the five days, the total number of liquidations reached 590,000, with total liquidation exceeding $1.42 billion. Countless investors were wiped out overnight amid the turbulence, with painful lessons learned.

2. The truth behind the rebound: it’s not a restart of the bull market, but a technical correction caused by three overlapping factors
Many believe that Friday’s rebound signals the restart of a Bitcoin bull market, eager to buy the dip, but this sharp reversal is not accidental, nor driven by fundamental improvements. Instead, it’s a short-term technical correction caused by three overlapping factors. Understanding this can help avoid blindly following the trend:
Policy signals provide reassurance: San Francisco Fed Chair Daly spoke on Friday, clearly signaling a rate cut, mentioning “the labor market remains fragile and may require one or two more rate cuts,” directly countering previous market expectations of tightening, giving high-risk assets a breather. As a highly volatile asset, Bitcoin was among the first to see capital flow back.
Treasury Department’s supportive stance: U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen responded on Friday to the “strong dollar policy,” not insisting on the traditional commitment to “maintaining the exchange rate,” but emphasizing “creating a strong fundamental environment for the dollar,” subtly easing concerns about liquidity tightening and indirectly boosting market sentiment.
Technical rebound + deleveraging: After Thursday’s crash, Bitcoin was in a severely oversold state, with many high-leverage longs liquidated, releasing some market risk and triggering short-term buy-in from bottom-fishing funds, forming a technical rebound. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record trading volumes, with some funds taking the opportunity to position, pushing prices higher.
Key reminder: this rebound is driven by “policy reassurance + technical correction,” not by an improvement in Bitcoin’s fundamentals, nor is it a signal of a new bull market. The structural fragility of the global financial system and liquidity issues in the crypto market remain unresolved. After the rebound, there is still significant risk of a sharp correction. Do not be overly optimistic.

3. Future trend forecast: short-term volatility dominates, medium- and long-term correction risks remain (including domestic regulatory impacts on price movements)
Based on the reasons for this rebound, market structure, reference materials, and the latest notices from 8 Chinese departments on February 6th, we objectively forecast Bitcoin’s future trend from global and domestic perspectives, focusing on the specific impact of domestic regulation on Bitcoin’s rise and fall. This is not absolute or exaggerated, just for reference!
Core logic: volatility will become normal, sustained rebounds are unlikely, and increased domestic regulation will further restrict participation and amplify dual risks (funds + legal).
Short-term trend (1-10 days): mainly sideways, difficult to break key resistance levels, limited impact from domestic notices but caution needed for sentiment transmission. After returning to $70,000, support levels are around $68,000-$70,000 (the starting point of Friday’s rebound), resistance at $73,500-$74,000 (the support before Thursday’s crash, now turned resistance). It’s likely to fluctuate within the $70,000-$73,500 range, without sustained upward trend—global policy signals are only “reassurance,” not a “turnaround,” so market confidence has yet to recover. Note that the “Notice” jointly issued by 8 departments on February 6th has limited immediate impact on the global price of Bitcoin (as Bitcoin is a decentralized global asset, its price mainly influenced by global funds and Federal Reserve policies), but it may trigger panic among domestic funds. If some domestic funds previously participated covertly, they might exit, causing a short-term minor correction in Bitcoin, but the impact will be far less than global policy developments.
Medium-term trend (1-6 months): focus on funds and policies, with ongoing correction risks, as domestic regulation tightens and reduces hidden participation. The core factors are: first, the flow of funds into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs and Federal Reserve policy directions, which are key to Bitcoin’s medium-term trend; second, the implementation strength of domestic regulation. The “Notice” from 8 departments explicitly bans illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies, closing loopholes for “offshore circumvention,” prohibiting foreign-issued stablecoins linked to RMB, and including RWA tokenization under regulation. If regulators intensify investigations, shut down domestic intermediaries and technical services, it will further restrict domestic funds’ covert participation, reduce incremental capital, and indirectly increase Bitcoin’s volatility. Coupled with institutional forecasts of a year-end correction probability, medium-term risks remain high, and breaking previous highs is unlikely.
Long-term trend (over 1 year): bubbles have not been eliminated, structural risks are prominent, and domestic regulation will continue to suppress domestic demand. Long-term, Bitcoin remains a “speculative asset” without tangible backing, with prices driven solely by capital, sentiment, and policy. Although this rebound recovers some ground, compared to the October 2025 peak of $126,000, it still retraced over 44%, with nearly half of its market value evaporated. From a domestic perspective, the release of the “Notice” by 8 departments marks a move toward “penetrating closed-loop regulation” of virtual currencies. Long-term, this will continue to suppress domestic investor participation, with domestic funds gradually exiting. Banning RWA tokenization and related activities will also reduce the link between virtual currencies and real assets, further isolating the domestic market from the virtual currency market. This may indirectly affect Bitcoin’s global liquidity. Coupled with global de-dollarization and debt pressures, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains uncertain. The previous pattern of “every crash being followed by a new high” may be broken!

4. Summary: the rebound is a warning, not an opportunity; respecting risks is the bottom line
Bitcoin’s return to $70,000, reclaiming all of Thursday’s losses overnight, appears to be a “stunning reversal,” but in reality, it’s a technical correction driven by global policy signals and market sentiment, with hidden risks far outweighing the benefits. The “Notice” jointly issued by 8 departments on February 6th also sounds an alarm for all virtual currency followers in China—regulatory oversight has fully intensified. The risks of illegal participation include not only capital losses but also legal liabilities. We have long moved away from markets driven solely by economic cycles. Today’s crypto market is more dominated by political-financial complex cycles. Interpreting policy signals is now more important than analyzing market trends.
Friday’s rebound is never a harbinger of a new bull market but a loud warning—Bitcoin’s game rules have changed, and volatility will become the norm. Any unilateral trend can be interrupted suddenly by policy signals.