#当前行情抄底还是观望？ Life and death line in urgent danger! Bitcoin breaks below 68,000 again, market consensus points to the 60,000 "ultimate test"

As the key psychological threshold is breached, support levels on technical analysis charts are shifting from defensive lines to battlegrounds that require defense. Any rebound will face heavy resistance and struggle to advance.

Technical Analysis: The $67,000 defense line is in danger, downward path is clear
The 4-hour chart shows that after a brief rebound near $72,000, Bitcoin encountered heavy selling pressure and has fallen back into a downtrend channel.

Short-term support is precarious: Currently, $67,000 is the nearest technical support level. If this level is lost, the price could quickly slide to the secondary support at $65,000. However, the market generally believes that support at $65,000 is limited, and the greater test lies at the "life and death line" of $60,000 in market consensus.

Rebound resistance is dense: Any upward attempt will face multiple obstacles. The nearest resistance is around $69,200 (hourly downtrend line), with stronger resistance in the $71,500 to $72,000 zone. Bulls need significant volume to break through these levels and give the market a breather.

Macro targets and extreme scenarios: Technical analysts have outlined a clear sequence of potential downside targets: first target at $60,000; if lost, then the second target at $55,000 (average cost basis for long-term holders); in extreme cases, testing the abyss at $49,000-$52,000 is also possible. This provides a clear reference for risk management.

News Analysis: Macroeconomic clouds persist, industry waits silently for dawn
Market pessimism stems from high macroeconomic uncertainty, while internally the industry is quietly accumulating strength.

1. Macro contrast: Gold shines while crypto dims. The strongest signal today comes from asset comparison. Amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties, spot gold prices surged to $5,050 per ounce, while digital assets like Bitcoin declined simultaneously. This divergence continues to test the narrative of cryptocurrencies as "safe-haven assets," forcing investors to reassess their asset allocation logic.

2. Industry dynamics: Diverging institutional behaviors. Contradictory signals are emerging within the market. On one hand, liquidation data and high leverage liquidations show retail and short-term traders are still panicking and exiting. On the other hand, data indicates large institutional investors are accumulating at low prices. This "retail selling, institutions buying" divergence is typical during complex bottom formation but can be very volatile.

3. Waiting for decisive catalysts: Currently, the market lacks clear, positive drivers. Investors may need to focus on upcoming key US economic data (such as CPI) or wait for the digital market's leverage unwinding to reach an extreme level (e.g., fear and greed index at its minimum) before a meaningful reversal can occur.

Market outlook and strategy: Cold winter persists, defense first
Until the market clearly exits the downtrend and shows signs of bottoming, the primary task is risk avoidance, not trying to find a turning point. In the short term, the market is expected to enter a "key support test" phase, with volatility possibly amplifying as important levels are touched.

The core observation zone shifts downward to $67,000 - $70,000. The most critical focus is on the reaction around $67,000. If volume declines and the price breaks below, the next targets are $65,000 and the life-and-death line at $60,000. Only a strong rebound and stabilization above $70,600 can temporarily relieve short-term risks.

Core strategies and recommendations:
1. Cash is king, extreme caution: When prices point to clear key supports (like BTC at $60,000) and market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, "holding cash and staying on the sidelines" is the highest discipline. Avoid trying to catch falling knives without protection.

2. Key position battles, strict stop-loss: For experienced short-term traders, if you insist on trading, consider lightly attempting rebounds near critical historical supports (such as BTC at $60,000, ETH at $1,800-$1,900), with stop-losses set just below these supports (e.g., BTC at $59,500, ETH at $1,850). This is high-risk and not suitable for most investors.

3. Abandon illusions, focus on right-side signals: Don’t guess when the market will "break through" the bottom. True bottoms require confirmation through a series of right-side signals, such as: daily chart volume-increased bottom reversal candlestick patterns; fear and greed index rising from extreme fear (currently below 20); or price consolidating at key supports (like $60,000) and breaking out with volume above short-term downtrend lines.

4. Long-term mindset: View the decline as an opportunity to research. For long-term investors confident in the industry’s future, this is not the time to panic about prices. Instead, use the market’s weakness to deeply analyze fundamentally solid projects and update your watchlist. Wait for clear bottom formation signals before gradually executing long-term dollar-cost averaging plans.