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$150M is almost a guaranteed FDV for CHIP by USDai in my opinion, and $300M FDV could also be a likely outcome.
• $600M USDai Supply (~10% of USDe and ENA trading at $1.8B)
• Level-Up S2 Gameplan could reduce sell pressure at TGE
• $1.5B loans in the pipeline that could further increase the yield of sUSDai, which btw is already one of the highest yield bearing stablecoin in the space at 6.7% APY
• Better risk management on default risk by using a insurnace + reinsurance model instead of a capital reserve model
• ACI just reopened the forum post yesterday to explore onboarding USDai/sUSDai on Aave
The First Day post-TGE USDai redemption will be the key number to look at to determine the retention rate of S1 participants. Market sentiment could also impact the FDV based on recent geopolitical uncertainty. If market condition stays similar to today, I believe $300M FDV could be a likely outcome with USDai strong narrative and positioning on AI/Depin/Stablecoins.
Note: These are just my personal views and NFA.