Is It Too Late To Consider Oshkosh (OSK) After A 60% One-Year Rally?

Simply Wall St

Wed, February 11, 2026 at 5:16 PM GMT+9 6 min read

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If you are wondering whether Oshkosh shares still offer value at current levels, this article will walk through what the numbers actually say about the stock.

With the share price at US$174.45 and recent returns of 9.5% over 7 days, 15.9% over 30 days, 31.9% year to date and 59.8% over 1 year, Oshkosh is firmly on many investors' radar.

Recent coverage has focused on Oshkosh's position in capital goods and how the market is reacting to its role supplying specialty vehicles and equipment to government and commercial customers. This backdrop helps explain why sentiment has shifted and why the stock's recent performance is drawing more attention.

Oshkosh currently sits on a valuation score of 4 out of 6. This means it screens as undervalued on several checks. We will walk through what different valuation methods say about that score before finishing with a way to look at value that can give you an even clearer picture.

Oshkosh delivered 59.8% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Machinery industry.

Approach 1: Oshkosh Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of the cash Oshkosh could generate in the future and discounts those cash flows back to a single value today. The idea is simple: a dollar of free cash flow in a few years is worth less than a dollar received now.

For Oshkosh, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $506.7 million. Analysts provide forecasts for several years. Beyond that, Simply Wall St extrapolates the pattern, with projected free cash flow of $875 million in 2030 and further estimates out to 2035, all expressed in US$.

When those projected cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $186.65 per share. Compared with the current share price of $174.45, the DCF implies Oshkosh is trading at around a 6.5% discount, which is a relatively small gap.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Oshkosh is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment’s notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

OSK Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Oshkosh.

Approach 2: Oshkosh Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Oshkosh, the P/E ratio is a useful way to relate what you pay for each share to the earnings that support that price. Investors typically look for a P/E that lines up with their expectations for future growth and the risk they see in those earnings, with higher expected growth or lower perceived risk often justifying a higher “normal” P/E.

Story Continues  

Oshkosh currently trades on a P/E of 17.06x. That sits below the Machinery industry average P/E of 29.67x and also below a peer average of 28.19x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Oshkosh is 28.49x, which is its proprietary estimate of what a reasonable P/E could be given factors like the company’s earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and specific risks.

The Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry because it adjusts for Oshkosh’s own characteristics rather than assuming all Machinery stocks should trade on the same multiple. Setting the current P/E of 17.06x against the Fair Ratio of 28.49x suggests the shares are pricing in a lower multiple than this framework implies.

Result: UNDERVALUED

NYSE:OSK P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 23 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Oshkosh Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St’s Community page you can use Narratives, where you and other investors link a simple story about Oshkosh to a specific forecast for revenue, earnings and margins. This then flows through to a Fair Value that you can compare with the current price. It updates automatically when new news or earnings arrive, and can differ widely. For example, one Oshkosh Narrative points to a Fair Value around US$125 and a more optimistic one is closer to US$185. This gives you a clear, visual sense of how different views on the same company translate into different valuation estimates.

For Oshkosh, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Oshkosh Narratives:

🐂 Oshkosh Bull Case

Fair Value: US$185.00 per share

Implied pricing gap vs last close: about 5.7% below this narrative fair value

Assumed revenue growth: 8.24% a year

AnalystHighTarget sees Oshkosh benefiting from strong positioning in electrified vehicles and defense, with margins supported by premium products and capacity expansion.

The narrative leans on higher long term earnings and EPS, backed by robust free cash flow and a faster pace of share buybacks than before.

Key risks flagged include slower progress in autonomous and electric platforms, heavy reliance on large US government defense contracts, supply chain and tariff pressures, and higher investment needs to meet environmental rules.

🐻 Oshkosh Bear Case

Fair Value: US$160.53 per share

Implied pricing gap vs last close: about 8.7% above this narrative fair value

Assumed revenue growth: 5.56% a year

AnalystConsensusTarget anchors on a blended analyst view that Oshkosh grows through infrastructure demand and technology in electric and autonomous vehicles, but at more measured rates.

This storyline uses a lower assumed revenue growth rate and a slightly lower profit margin than some bullish views, with fair value tied to a future P/E of about 12.6x.

It highlights sensitivities around tariffs, supply chains, reliance on big government programs, pricing pressure in Access equipment, and the cyclical nature of construction and defense end markets.

If you want to see how these stories are built line by line, you can read the full community views and compare them with your own expectations using Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Oshkosh? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:OSK 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include OSK.

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