Gold price maintains gains near $5,100 amid increasing geopolitical turmoil

Gold prices have continued their strong upward trend in recent weeks, maintaining record levels above the $5,100 per ounce mark, benefiting from a complex economic and political environment that favors safe-haven assets. This solid performance reflects multi-layered market dynamics, combining rising geopolitical risks, monetary policy pressures, and declining confidence in major currencies.

The spot gold price recently reached around $5,065 per ounce, after approaching $5,110 in previous sessions, indicating a cautious balance between sustained defensive demand and limited profit-taking after recent record highs.

Factors Driving Continued Rise

Trade Escalation and Redrawing Power Lines

U.S. President Donald Trump significantly escalated tariffs, announcing a 25% tariff on imports from South Korea and Canada. This move came at a politically sensitive time, after a diplomatic summit in China, which the market interpreted as a direct American message to realign global trade balances.

This escalation revived fears of potential trade wars, especially with the global economy remaining fragile. Gold, as an asset unlinked from global supply chains, has regained its role as a primary safe haven in investors’ portfolios seeking to hedge rising trade risks.

Political Pressures on Central Bank Independence

Markets experienced heightened anxiety ahead of Federal Reserve meetings, not due to monetary policy itself, but because of unprecedented political pressures on the institution. Criminal investigations involving Fed Chair Jerome Powell and attempts to oust Board member Lisa Cook coincided with the upcoming appointment of a new successor, raising deep questions among investors about the independence of monetary decision-making from political influence.

This unstable situation increased demand for gold as a hedge not only against inflation or interest rate changes but also against deeper institutional risks related to eroding trust in American economic institutions.

Weakening Dollar and Geopolitical Implications

The U.S. dollar faced notable pressure due to joint interventions by American and Japanese officials to contain yen fluctuations. This weakness directly reflected in higher dollar-priced gold, boosting its attractiveness as a global alternative asset.

Dollar weakness indicates a declining appetite among investors to hold dollar-denominated assets amid ongoing political turmoil, opening the door for gold to benefit as a neutral asset not tied to a single currency or political system.

Central Bank Activity and Mining Acquisition Wave

The acquisition of Chinese Zijin Gold by Canadian Alamos Gold for about 5.5 billion Canadian dollars reflects growing strategic confidence among major players that gold prices will remain high in the long term. These deals demonstrate a deep conviction in persistent geopolitical and monetary risks, rather than short-term speculation.

Mining companies have benefited from record profit margins and unprecedented cash flows, fueling mergers and acquisitions. This wave helps reduce future supply and enhances investment discipline within the sector, providing additional structural support for sustained high price levels even during temporary corrections.

Technical Analysis of Gold Price

Gold continues its strong upward momentum on the two-hour timeframe, maintaining a positive price movement within a sensitive range between $5,080 and $5,083. This range reflects a direct struggle between breakout attempts and limited profit-taking after recent record highs.

The continued trading above the upward trendline confirms respect for the overall positive structure, with prices moving away from key moving averages. This behavior indicates that buyers still hold control despite signs of temporary momentum slowdown, suggesting the market is in a rebalancing phase within an uptrend rather than an immediate reversal.

Momentum Indicator Signals

The MACD shows signs of relative weakening in bullish momentum, with narrowing bars and a limited potential crossover. However, it remains in positive territory, supporting the continuation of the uptrend as long as a definitive negative shift is not confirmed.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 60, maintaining an overall positive zone that reflects ongoing buying dominance. Yet, lower highs compared to previous peaks, along with similar price highs, suggest a possible sideways movement or a minor correction in the near term.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

Resistance levels:

• $5,150
• $5,250
• $5,353

Support levels:

• $4,882
• $4,765
• $4,634

Short- and Medium-Term Price Outlook

Latest forecasts indicate a continued bullish trend for gold, supported by robust structural factors. Independent analysts like Ross Norman project that geopolitical risks, central bank demand, and investor behavior could push gold toward $6,000 or higher by the end of 2026 if uncertainty persists.

The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) has raised its average price forecast for 2026 to around $4,742 per ounce, with optimistic scenarios suggesting prices could reach $7,150 amid ongoing geopolitical and financial turmoil.

Conversely, Goldman Sachs has increased its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce from previous estimates of $4,900, based on continued central bank purchases and rising hedge demand in an environment of eroding confidence in dollar assets.

Upcoming Market-Impact Events

U.S. consumer confidence data will be a key indicator of domestic demand strength. Unexpected weakness could reinforce recession fears and declining confidence, supporting safe-haven assets like gold.

The ADP employment change report will provide an early signal of the U.S. labor market trend; weak readings may lead investors to adjust interest rate expectations, positively impacting gold prices.

The upcoming 5-year U.S. Treasury bond auction will be a real test of investor appetite for U.S. debt. Weak demand could push yields higher and temporarily pressure gold, while strong demand may reflect cautious investing that favors the precious metal.

Overall Outlook and Strategy

The general outlook for gold remains cautiously positive in the coming days and weeks. As long as fundamental factors—such as dollar weakness, geopolitical tensions, and defensive demand—persist, the upward momentum retains its strength.

Monitoring price action around the $5,083 level is advisable before making new trading decisions. A clear breakout and sustained close above this level on the two-hour chart would support targeting $5,150 and higher levels gradually.

If the price fails to break current resistance, a correction toward the psychological $5,000 level or back to the strong support zone at $4,882 could occur. However, as long as the upward trendline remains intact, the overall trend stays intact.

In summary, gold maintains its strength in a complex environment characterized by geopolitical and monetary uncertainty, reinforcing its long-term positive outlook despite potential short-term volatility driven by interest rate movements or unexpected economic data.