February 28, 2026 Cryptocurrency Morning Analysis: Consolidation and Layered Strategies Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty

On the morning of February 28, 2026, the cryptocurrency market continued its weak consolidation pattern. Bitcoin prices fluctuated narrowly between $66,600 and $67,200, with a 24-hour decline of approximately 1.42%–1.66%. After experiencing a technical rebound on the previous trading day, the market retreated again, indicating a persistent confidence crisis. Key bearish factors include escalating Middle East geopolitical risks, the official implementation of the US 10% global tariffs, delayed Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and contagion from tech stock sentiment. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin trapped in a short-term range of $64,000–$70,000, with a trend requiring clearer macro catalysts.

1. Market Overview: Rebound Fails, Consolidation Continues

As of the morning of February 28, 2026, the total global cryptocurrency market cap was approximately $2.35 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC) was at $66,619.1, down 1.42% over 24 hours; Ethereum (ETH) was at $1,983.18, down 0.89%. Mainstream coins generally remained under pressure, with active trading but dominant selling pressure.

This pullback broke the brief optimism sparked by the $5.066 billion net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs on February 26. Despite positive signals in ETF fund flows, the year-to-date net outflow still reached about $1.7 billion, with institutional fund flows showing divergence. For example, DDC Enterprise increased Bitcoin holdings for the seventh consecutive week, while listed miner BitDeer liquidated its Bitcoin holdings.

2. Core Driving Factors Analysis

Macro Policy and Geopolitical Dual Pressure: Escalating Middle East tensions (slow US-Iran negotiations, increased US troop deployments) combined with the Trump administration’s 10% “global tariffs” have heightened concerns over global trade and inflation, prompting capital to withdraw from high-risk assets. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March is as high as 98%, with high interest rate environment lasting longer than expected, continuously suppressing risk asset valuations.

Market Sentiment and Capital Flows: The correlation between the cryptocurrency market and US tech stocks has strengthened. Concerns over Nvidia’s AI expenditure sustainability after its earnings report dragged down the Nasdaq, reducing risk appetite and directly impacting crypto markets. Although ETF daily fund inflows turned positive, sustainability remains uncertain, with market sentiment shifting from brief excitement to caution.

Regulatory Environment Divergence: Hong Kong plans to issue its first stablecoin licenses in March and establish licensing for digital asset trading; the US Department of Labor has revoked restrictions on using crypto assets in retirement plans. Meanwhile, China’s Supreme Court clarified that it will strengthen judicial responses to virtual currency and other new financial cases, and eight departments including the People’s Bank of China issued notices to further prevent virtual currency risks, increasing regulatory complexity.

3. Technical Analysis: Range Consolidation Established

Bitcoin (BTC): On the daily chart, it is weakly oscillating near the lower end of the downtrend channel, with medium- and long-term moving averages still in a bearish alignment. The 4-hour chart shows consolidation in the $64,000–$68,000 range, Bollinger Bands narrowing, RSI hovering around 50, with relatively balanced bullish and bearish momentum. Key support is at $64,200–$65,000, with strong resistance at $69,000–$70,000.

Ethereum (ETH): Technicals appear weaker, having broken below the key psychological level of $2,000. Short-term support has shifted down to $1,850–$1,860. If broken, further decline toward $1,800 is possible.

4. Trading Strategy Recommendations (Layered Approach)

Long-term Spot Holders: Adopt a “buy the dip” dollar-cost averaging strategy, strictly limiting position size to within 5% of total assets. Consider gradually accumulating core assets like BTC and ETH when Bitcoin stabilizes around $64,500–$65,000. Keep some cash reserves for extreme buying opportunities when the Fear & Greed Index drops below 20.

Short-term Contract Traders: Focus on range trading with strict risk controls, avoiding high leverage.

Bitcoin: Buy low and sell high within the $64,500–$68,000 range. If prices dip and stabilize around $64,500–$65,000, try small long positions with a stop-loss below $63,500; if prices rebound to $67,500–$68,000 and face resistance, try small short positions with a stop-loss above $68,500.

Ethereum: Trade within the $1,950–$2,080 range. If prices dip and stabilize near $2,000, try small long positions with a stop-loss below $1,950; if prices rebound to $2,050–$2,070 and face resistance, try small short positions with a stop-loss above $2,100.

Position Management: Limit single-position exposure to no more than 10% of total funds, avoid overnight holdings.

Beginner Investors: Given the current high volatility and uncertainty, it is not recommended to enter the market. Prioritize learning and fully understand the high risks and regulatory policies associated with cryptocurrency trading.

5. Market Outlook and Key Monitoring Points

In the short term (1–4 weeks), the market is likely to remain in a wide-range consolidation pattern. Trend-driven moves depend on the March Federal Reserve rate decision, key US economic data (such as Non-Farm Payrolls, CPI), and further clarity on geopolitical developments. If Fed rate cuts materialize and ETF fund flows continue to rebound, prices may recover; otherwise, persistent macro tightening could push prices down to $60,000 or lower.

In the medium term, the market remains in a complex bottoming process. Bernstein analysts believe this is more of a “confidence crisis,” with Bitcoin’s underlying infrastructure (exchanges, custodians) remaining robust, and long-term fundamentals (halving narratives, institutional compliance) still intact.

Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency trading involves extremely high market risk, leverage risk, regulatory risk, and liquidity risk. Prices can be highly volatile, potentially leading to full loss of principal. This article is for market information and strategy discussion only and does not constitute investment advice.