How Deep Is Bitcoin's Rabbit Hole? Bear Market Keeps Uncertainty Despite Consolidation

Bitcoin continues trading near $63,950, a level that divides opinions among analysts. While some see the stabilization as a sign of a market bottom, an increasing number of experts question whether this consolidation is truly what it appears to be. The central question remains: how much lower can this downtrend still go?

Tactical Pause or Deceptive Calm?

In recent days, Bitcoin has moved sideways with relatively low volatility, leading some observers to interpret this pattern as an indicator of stabilization. However, this view may be overlooking critical signals. The support level around $60,000 has been tested multiple times, and although the asset has managed to stay above this mark, the structural question remains: how resilient is this support really?

Increasing Volatility: Willy Woo’s Warning

Prominent on-chain analyst Willy Woo is among the skeptics of an imminent recovery. His argument focuses on a frequently overlooked detail: volatility. According to his analysis, Bitcoin entered a bearish market territory when volatility spiked significantly — a pattern that institutional quantitative managers monitor closely.

Woo’s most concerning point is that volatility has continued to grow since that initial peak, not decrease. Historically, true market bottoms do not occur at the first volatility peak but rather at the second or third — a process that can take months. This suggests that even if Bitcoin remains above $60,000, there are no guarantees that the bottom has been reached.

On-Chain Metrics Show Contradictory Signals

Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score adds complexity to the scenario. This metric tracks whether large market participants are buying or selling in aggregate volume. Values close to 1 (darker shades) indicate aggressive accumulation, while values near zero suggest distribution by big players.

Historically, significant bottoms coincided with periods of intense accumulation. The decline at the end of the previous year, for example, followed patterns similar to post-LUNA and post-FTX environments, where heavy buying eventually halted the decline. However, the current reading remains ambiguous. For this zone to serve as a true floor, it would need to attract the kind of aggressive buying that characterized those previous recoveries. Without that conviction from major players, another downward move cannot be ruled out.

Options Market Shows Cautious Hope

Not everyone is pessimistic. Derivatives market data tell a different story from on-chain analysis. Aurelie Barthere, Senior Research Analyst at Nansen, observed that call options outpaced put options last week, particularly in block transactions typical of professional investors.

The most sought-after strike price? $75,000, well above the current trading range. This suggests that a segment of the market is positioning for a breakout rather than further collapse. Whether this optimistic positioning translates into actual price action will depend crucially on how buyers respond if Bitcoin tests the lower end of its consolidation range again.

Macroeconomic Catalysts as Wildcards

Beyond technical charts and derivatives, the broader macroeconomic environment could prove decisive. Barthere warned that sustained recovery might remain out of reach until several catalysts align: progress on the US CLARITY legislation for crypto regulation, key election results, and a genuine shift in risk appetite in global markets.

Until these factors clarify, even a short-term jump toward $75,000 would struggle to develop into a sustained trend reversal. Bitcoin thus remains at a critical point where multiple variables need to align for a bullish scenario to materialize.

What to Watch Moving Forward

The $60,000 level remains the line in the sand. Aggressive buying at this price, reflected in high on-chain accumulation scores, would lend credibility to a bullish case. Conversely, failure to defend this level could open the door to the second and third phases of decline that analysts like Willy Woo describe as possible.

For now, the market is at a decisive moment. Options traders are cautiously optimistic based on their positions, while structural indicators suggest patience may be wiser than conviction. How deep this hole can still go will depend on how these different signals unfold in the coming days and weeks.