The US and Israel launched a large-scale airstrike on Iran, with Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei confirmed dead. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps then carried out retaliatory strikes against US military bases, the "Lincoln" aircraft carrier, and targets in multiple Middle Eastern countries. The conflict has affected the UAE, Kuwait, and other Gulf nations. Trump vowed to continue actions until all objectives are achieved. Iran emphasized that it will decide when the war ends and refused to negotiate with the US. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also stated that the next few days will see "further escalation" of the actions.

Currently, the market is divided into two camps.

The cautious/negative camp believes that with the US stock market and BTC ETF opening on Monday, the market will undergo true "price discovery." If ETF investors choose to withdraw, prices could quickly fall below $63,000. Additionally, if the conflict leads to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to surge, it could raise inflation expectations and put pressure on risk assets like BTC.

The optimistic camp, on the other hand, believes that the market has quickly absorbed the impact of the conflict, and the rebound proves that the market expects the conflict to be short-lived. From a technical perspective, BTC has turned resistance into support and is expected to rise to the $73,000 to $74,000 range.

In summary, the key focus moving forward is on oil prices. Brent crude has already risen over 7%. If oil prices continue to rise and break through $90, it could trigger US inflation expectations to rise to 5%, affecting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which is bearish. After all, the Strait of Hormuz accounts for 20% of global oil transportation. If it is completely closed or obstructed, it will be a key variable impacting energy prices and global inflation expectations. The performance after tonight's US stock market opening and the capital flow into BTC ETFs will likely become the critical window to test the market's true reaction. #深度创作营