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COINBASE PREMIUM JUST FLIPPED -- FLOWS ARE DRIVING THIS MOVE
Bitcoin’s rebound looks less about geopolitics and more about real money stepping back in.
After weeks of negative readings, the Coinbase Premium just turned positive (~+0.05%) for the first time in about 40 days. At the same time, U.S. spot #Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $1.1B of inflows in three days, including about $652M into BlackRock’s $IBIT. $BTC responded by bouncing back toward the $68K area.
The structure here matters. Coinbase is a key venue for U.S. institutional flow, and a positive premium typically signals real spot demand returning. Derivatives aren’t flashing excess either -- funding is neutral and leverage remains contained, pointing to a spot-led move.
Macro is still a mixed backdrop with the dollar firm and the 10-year near 4%, but the quick recovery despite Middle East headlines suggests geopolitics wasn’t the primary driver.
Flows are doing the heavy lifting. If ETF demand persists and the premium stays positive, this rebound has room to build.
In this market, flows > headlines