📊 March 4th ETH Technical Analysis + Strategy (As of 18:00, currently around $1,980)

Key conclusion: 1950–2050 converging oscillation, mainly high-altitude trading, light long positions at low levels, strict stop-loss control

1. Key Price Levels (Precise)

- Resistance: 2000 → 2030 → 2070 (Strong resistance / Bollinger upper band)
- Support: 1950 → 1920 → 1870 (Strong support)

2. Cycles and Indicators (Understand in one sentence)

- Daily: End of descending channel, MACD golden cross below zero but no volume rebound, no reversal; long-term moving averages are bearish, mid-term slightly bearish
- 4-hour: Converging triangle consolidation, weakening bearish momentum, waiting for breakout
- 1-hour: Moving averages converged, RSI 45–50 neutral, balanced between bulls and bears
- Volume: Rebound with no volume, decline with increasing volume, funds are on the sidelines, no unilateral momentum

3. Intraday Strategy (Can be executed directly, for reference only, not investment advice)

1) High-altitude (Main strategy)

- Aggressive: Short at 2000–2010 with light position, stop loss at 2035, targets 1970 → 1950 → 1920
- Conservative: Short in the 2030–2050 range, stop loss at 2075, targets 2000 → 1950 → 1920 → 1870
- Logic: Converging upper boundary suppression, volumeless rebound, heavy selling pressure from trapped positions

2) Low-level Longs (Secondary strategy, light positions)

- Aggressive: Stabilize at 1950 with a small long, stop loss at 1930, targets 1980 → 2000
- Conservative: Long at 1920–1930, stop loss at 1900, targets 1970 → 2000
- Logic: Converging lower support, oversold rebound demand

3) Breakout Response (Key)

- Break above 2075 (with volume): Exit shorts, watch or lightly long, target 2100 → 2150
- Break below 1920 (valid): Exit longs, hold shorts, target 1870 → 1800

4. Position and Risk Control (Must read)

- Single-direction position ≤ 10%, total position ≤ 20%
- Strict stop-loss, no holding through losses, no chasing
- Prioritize range trading: high sell, low buy, avoid betting on unilateral moves

5. Market Outlook (1–2 weeks)

- Probable: 1870–2070 oscillation, waiting for BTC halving and Federal Reserve decision to land
- Break above 2070 → look up to 2100 → 2150
- Break below 1870 → look down to 1800 → 1750