#美伊局势影响

These past few days, my mood while watching the markets has been like riding a roller coaster. The US-Iran conflict has entered its fifth day, and not only has the situation not eased, but there are signs of “spillover” expansion. As a “battlefield observer” in the square, watching the K-line charts on the screen and real-time news from the Middle East, I deeply feel that we may be at the starting point of a global energy crisis and asset revaluation.

🔥 My focus on “black swan” signals: not just the Strait blockade

Currently, major media headlines are talking about the “oil tanker standstill” in the Strait of Hormuz, but that’s already obvious. I am more concerned with several new developments that could shake the deep logic of the market:

1. “Rear base” no longer safe: Yesterday, a drone attack near the US consulate in Dubai, and the US military’s Udeid Air Base in Qatar was hit by missiles. This marks that the flames of war have spread from the Persian Gulf coast to the UAE and Qatar, which were previously considered relatively safe. These two countries are not only financial centers but also the lifelines of global LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports. When news broke that Qatar’s natural gas facilities were damaged and production halted, the market’s reaction was just beginning.
2. The “retreat” of the insurance industry: Several international maritime insurers announced they would cancel war risk coverage in the Gulf region starting March 5. This means that even if the US military declares escort, no insurance company dares to underwrite, and shipowners are unwilling to risk sailing. This “soft blockade” is more enduring and deadly than military blockades.

🚢 Multi-dimensional impact: who’s “eating meat,” who’s “taking a hit”?

The impact of this conflict on various asset classes is differentiated. Simply using “inflation rises across the board” might cause us to miss structural opportunities:

· Energy (oil/natural gas): This is the eye of the storm. Brent crude once surged to $82, though it pulled back today, which was the result of the Trump administration’s attempted intervention and market profit-taking. The core logic remains unchanged: if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked long-term, Japan, South Korea, and India in Asia will be forced to buy non-Middle Eastern crude oil, triggering a global “bidding war.” The volatility of natural gas (LNG) could even surpass that of oil because of smaller inventory buffers.
· Shipping (container shipping/oil shipping): Currently the “hidden champion.” The Ningbo Container Freight Index (NCFI) for Middle East routes surged 82% in one week. It’s not just freight rates rising, but ships simply not daring to go. Such supply chain disruptions (like the shutdown at Jebel Ali port) could lead to a decline in global container turnover, similar to the big congestion in 2021, but this time due to “ship shortages.”
· Safe-haven assets (gold vs BTC): An interesting “dual flight” scenario has emerged. Gold has returned above $5,150, reflecting traditional war hedging logic. Meanwhile, BTC also briefly rebounded to $71,000. My understanding is that, against the backdrop of the dollar’s credibility being damaged by war and tariffs, BTC is being partly used by some funds as “digital gold” and an escape route around traditional financial systems. This attribute has been reinforced during this conflict.

💡 Current “long and short” opportunities to watch

In this moment of sharply increased volatility, chasing gains or cutting losses is extremely risky. I believe the following directions are more actionable:

1. Go long on “volatility” rather than simply on price: Instead of guessing where oil prices will top out, focus on the shipping sector (related ETFs or derivatives). Regardless of oil price movements, as long as ships are rerouting and premiums are rising, freight rates will increase.
2. Hedge “energy” with “manufacturing”: Worsening situations will cause energy costs to soar, which is clearly negative for manufacturing powers in Europe and East Asia (cost-push inflation + demand suppression). Consider going long on oil and gas sectors while also paying attention to downstream manufacturing industries that may see demand shrink due to high costs.
3. Watch the “changing landscape of sanctioned oil”: The conflict is dismantling the original “sanctioned oil system.” If oil prices spiral out of control, the US might tacitly allow more Venezuelan or Iranian oil to flow into the market through covert channels. The gray-area trade and related currency settlements (like USDT used in energy trade) could see a surge.