📡 Global Anomaly Scan

2026-03-05 20:45
We do one thing every day—
Identify the most abnormal pricing dislocations in the global market.
Today’s gap is—TSMC continues to hit new highs, but order visibility is still very blurry?
Honestly, I’ve recently seen TSMC’s stock price surge again, and I feel a bit complicated inside.
It keeps reaching new highs, everyone is shouting about the “National Treasure Mountain,” full AI orders, and an unlimited bright future.
I’ve also made some profit on my holdings, of course I’m happy.
But the more I look, the more I feel something’s off.
Because global semiconductor inventory destocking isn’t fully finished yet.
Customers are still digesting inventory, and short-term order visibility is actually very vague.
TSMC has also said that growth in the first half of 2026 will be relatively slow.
Yet the stock price continues to rise as if nothing’s happening.
Is this reasonable?
💥 Structural Break Point
Under normal circumstances: inventory destocking + unclear order visibility → stock prices should at least be volatile or pull back.
The current reality: inventory is still being digested → TSMC’s stock price keeps hitting new highs.
I really don’t understand if this is the market preemptively reflecting the future, or if it’s just playing with emotions again.
❓ My Judgment
I’ve chased similar trends before and found that this kind of “pricing in several years of growth in advance” rally usually ends with a correction.
TSMC’s fundamentals are of course very strong, but now the stock price has already reflected several years of AI demand.
If short-term orders don’t explode or geopolitical risks heat up again, the correction could be painful.
What about you?
Do you currently hold TSMC?
Are you making a profit or starting to get trapped?
Or like me, taking some profit and watching from the sidelines, waiting to see how it all ends?
Observe these three points:
❓ Step 1: TSMC’s monthly revenue vs. stock price trend
Check the monthly revenue on the stock exchange or company website. If the growth rate is significantly below market expectations but the stock price is still rising, be cautious.
❓ Step 2: Customer inventory levels and order visibility
Look at Apple, NVIDIA, AMD’s financial reports or earnings calls. If they still say “inventory adjustment ongoing,” but TSMC’s stock price ignores that, the divergence is even greater.
❓ Step 3: Foreign and domestic institutional buying and selling
Track the buy/sell activity of the three major institutional investors. If foreign investors keep selling but the stock price still rises, it indicates retail investors are supporting the rally, increasing risk.
Today, only one thing is confirmed:
Will TSMC’s revenue growth next month match the stock price increase?
The market will speak for itself.
📊 Divergence Dashboard
Speculation > Reality 🔥💨
⚠️ Geopolitical risk premium high
📉 Short-term order visibility limited
❓ Is long-term demand overheating?
Honestly, right now I feel a bit anxious when I look at TSMC.
What about you? Do you have a heavy position in TSMC?
Are you making big money or starting to get trapped?
Or like me, taking some profit and watching from the sidelines, waiting to see how it all ends?
I really want to know your true position and feelings. Feel free to reply and chat with me.
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