The Big Short's Michael Burry Takes Palantir to Task Over Inflated Valuation

Legendary investor Michael Burry, whose investment thesis inspired the acclaimed film “The Big Short,” has launched a sharp critique of Palantir Technologies’ valuation, estimating the data analytics company’s fair value at just $46 per share—a stark contrast to its current trading levels. This bearish assessment marks another significant challenge to investor confidence in the closely watched stock, as mounting skepticism from prominent market observers has begun to weigh on Palantir’s momentum.

In a detailed analysis shared through his Substack platform, Burry, the former founder and CEO of Scion Asset Management, articulated his concern that Palantir’s recent operational success masks underlying financial strain. He specifically questioned the company’s cost structure and flagged potential overstatement of profit margins, warning that “the recent success trajectory is unlikely to sustain.” While Burry clarified he is not actively shorting the stock outright, he maintains put options that would profit from a price decline—a strategic hedge reflecting his conviction in the bearish thesis.

Michael Burry’s Valuation Case: Why He Sees PLTR at $46

Burry’s $46 price target represents a dramatic departure from prevailing market sentiment. His analysis centers on Palantir’s elevated operational expenditures and questions surrounding the true profitability of the company’s business model. Despite Palantir’s impressive revenue growth powered by its flagship Artificial Intelligence Platform, Burry contends that current market pricing fails to account for the company’s ongoing expense pressures and potential margin challenges.

The divergence between Burry’s assessment and market reality is staggering. Palantir shares tumbled nearly 5% following his public commentary, settling around $129, and have subsequently declined approximately 40% from their November peak as investor appetite has cooled. Notably, the stock surged more than 100% throughout 2025 after gaining an extraordinary 340% in 2024, making its recent pullback particularly dramatic for investors who rode the earlier rally.

Wall Street’s Divided Stance: Analysts vs. Michael Burry’s Bearish View

While Burry stands alone in his severe pessimism, broader market analysis reveals a more nuanced picture. According to data from Visible Alpha, just half of the eight analysts currently covering Palantir recommend purchasing the stock, with the remainder suggesting a “hold” posture amid concerns that valuations have climbed too rapidly.

Tellingly, even the most bearish Wall Street analyst—those recommending caution—still sets a price target of $180, nearly four times higher than Burry’s estimate. This $180 target, while implying downside risk from November’s record highs, underscores how Michael Burry’s valuation case represents an outlier position relative to institutional consensus. The gap between Burry’s $46 and mainstream analyst targets reflects fundamentally different assessments of Palantir’s profit sustainability and growth potential.

For investors tracking the unfolding story, the tension between Michael Burry’s legendary track record of unconventional calls and Wall Street’s cautiously optimistic stance presents a classic dilemma: whether to heed the contrarian warning from the architect of “The Big Short,” or trust the conventional wisdom of institutional research—a decision that may ultimately define Palantir’s stock performance in the months ahead.