3.5 Morning Gold Outlook

The Middle East situation continues to ferment, rising oil prices are once again boosting inflation expectations, and the market's anticipation of a Fed rate cut has been further delayed. Coupled with profit-taking from earlier gains, gold has experienced a rapid correction. However, this is not a trend reversal but a violent shakeout in the middle of a bull market.

From a technical perspective, after a deep retracement, the bearish momentum has been sufficiently released. A sign of a bottom has appeared on the daily chart, with short-term indicators gradually turning upward, forming conditions for a rebound. Short-term resistance is concentrated around the 5200–5220 region, which is a previous area of high trading volume and an important defensive level for short-term bears. The probability of encountering resistance and falling back after a rebound here is relatively high, and the short-term market may mainly fluctuate at high levels.

On the macro front, short-term interest rate expectations dominate the rhythm. The high-interest-rate environment suppresses gold prices, but uncertainties in the Middle East remain, so the risk premium for safe-haven assets will not fully dissipate. In the medium to long term, the logic of central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization remains unchanged, providing support for the gold price bottom. The March non-farm payrolls and Fed interest rate decision will be key turning points; once they are announced, the market may reprice the rate cut expectations. After consolidating, there is still room for upward movement.

In terms of trading strategy, in the short term, you can rely on the 5150–5158 range to participate in rebounds, and consider reducing positions or establishing short positions in the 5200–5220 zone in batches. Avoid chasing highs or being extremely bearish; look for rhythm within the oscillation.