#比特币创下近一月内新高

Huge surge to $74,050! WASHINGTON Nomination = Signal of Rate Cut? Here's How I’m Positioning

Tonight I couldn’t sleep. During the early morning watch, that big bullish candle finally appeared—Bitcoin directly broke through $74,050, hitting a new high since February 5. The market is buzzing, everyone in the group is saying “Bull Run Back Soon.”

Amid the celebration, let’s calmly discuss the two hot topics this round: What does Kevin WASHINGTON’s nomination really mean? At this critical juncture, should we be greedy or fearful?

Regarding WASHINGTON’s Nomination: Is the Rate Cut Expectation Rising? Not Necessarily!

The White House officially submitted Kevin WASHINGTON’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair to the Senate. Many immediately equate this with “rate cuts.” But I think it’s not that simple. Short-term expectations are indeed rising, but medium-term prospects are full of uncertainties.

On the surface, Trump has always wanted rates to “drop significantly,” and WASHINGTON has recently shifted to support bringing rates down to around 3%, a “neutral level.” This is the direct reason for today’s positive market reaction—everyone is betting on a more compliant Fed Chair.

But a closer look at WASHINGTON’s background reveals he was once a “hawk” who resigned over opposition to quantitative easing. His true stance might be “balance sheet reduction + rate cuts”—lowering rates is fine, but he doesn’t want to expand the balance sheet again. This could lead to a situation where short-term rates fall, but long-term rates might rise due to balance sheet reduction.

More importantly, the Iran war is muddying the waters. The conflict is pushing oil prices higher, inflation could surge again, and Goldman Sachs estimates CPI could reach 3% by year-end. Regardless of who becomes Chair, inflation will require caution. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari has already warned: “If overall inflation remains high, it will be a scenario that requires close vigilance.”

So my judgment is: WASHINGTON’s nomination has indeed boosted risk assets in the short term due to rate cut expectations, but the actual rate cut path remains fraught with obstacles—inflation and war are two major hurdles.

My current strategy at this juncture: Hold cash and wait for gains, but keep a backup plan ready.

As for the second question—Hold coins, chase gains, or prepare for a pullback?

Today I choose: Hold coins and wait for gains, but I won’t aggressively chase at this level, nor am I rushing to short.

There are three reasons:

1. Respect the trend.
The daily chart has broken out of the downtrend since February, with MA5 and MA10 forming a golden cross—solid technical signals. On-chain data shows funds are indeed flowing back; last night, over 1,000 large transactions above $500,000 USD occurred. ETF outflows have reversed after four months, with nearly $700 million flowing in over the past two days. Since the big players are voting with real money, I have no reason to go against the trend.

2. The upside space is worth considering.
Technically, the next resistance level is around $78,600. If it can break through, $80,000 is within reach. Having already gained from the bottom to now, it’s worth re-evaluating the layout and letting profits run.

3. Defensive measures must be in place.
While bullish, risk control can’t be neglected. My stop-loss zone is set at $69,500–$70,000—this is the previous top-bottom reversal point and also where the MA5 is located. If it falls below here, I’ll consider reducing positions or stopping losses.

Why not short now? The news environment is too complex—war, nominations, legislation intertwined. Shorting is like catching a falling knife. Even if I consider a pullback, I’ll wait for clear signs of exhaustion, such as four-hour bearish divergence or a volume breakdown of support before acting.

WASHINGTON’s nomination indeed ignited rate cut expectations, but how long this fire lasts depends on inflation data and the war’s developments. In terms of operation, those with positions can continue holding, while those without should wait for a pullback near $70,000 before considering entering—don’t chase high with full positions at this level.

One last reminder: Use stop-loss orders on contracts. Surviving in this market is more important than anything else.