#比特币创下近一月内新高

Gate Square | Bitcoin Breaks $74,000: Is This the Start of a "New Bull Run" or the "Last Hurrah Before Recession"?
Just now, staring at the candlestick chart on the screen, that long-missed sweaty-palms feeling has returned. After nearly a month, Bitcoin has finally touched above $74,000 again. This rally was accompanied by two major news from the White House: first, the formal nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair to the Senate; second, the Senate's failure to block Trump's military strike against Iran.
War and leadership changes intertwine, risks and easing expectations soar. At this critical juncture, I want to share my views on today’s topic from two perspectives: macro logic and trading mindset.
1️⃣ Does Kevin Warsh’s nomination mean increasing expectations of rate cuts?
My view is: expectations are indeed rising, but the implementation might not be so quick; the market may be "jumping the gun."
First, in terms of style, Warsh’s nomination carries a strong "Trump flavor." Trump has publicly expressed hopes that under Warsh’s leadership, "interest rates will significantly decline." The market is smart; it has sensed the White House’s desire to "replace personnel and loosen policy," thus pricing in future easing expectations, which is the core macro driver behind Bitcoin’s surge.
However, if we dig a little deeper, the situation might not be so simple. Although Warsh is seen as a "dovish" representative, he has a complex background: he was a Stanford professor early in his career, a key aide to Bernanke during the financial crisis, and historically leans towards "hawkish" policies, criticizing the Fed’s large balance sheet post-crisis. This creates a contradiction: Trump wants him to cut rates, but he might internally prefer to return the Fed to a "small government, rule-based" approach.
More critically, the current macro environment does not support large-scale easing immediately. The US core PCE remains high, inflation has not yet been tamed; meanwhile, Trump just launched a war against Iran, oil prices have risen, and inflation expectations are climbing again. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari also warned that supply shocks from the war would make rate cuts more difficult to decide.
So my conclusion is: Warsh’s nomination opens up the "possibility of future rate cuts," but in the short term, it’s mainly market speculation; actual implementation will likely wait until the war situation clarifies and inflation is under control.
2️⃣ At this critical point, should we hold cash and wait for gains, follow the trend to chase longs, or reverse and prepare for a pullback?
Facing the $74,000 level, my strategy is simple: don’t chase longs, don’t short, hold positions and observe, leaving some USDT for a pullback.
My current holdings are about 50%, mainly spot BTC and ETH. There are three reasons:
First, technically, the trend has indeed strengthened, but we are approaching resistance zones. On the daily chart, Bitcoin has broken out of the downtrend channel since February, with moving averages forming a golden cross. But higher up, around $78,600 is a strong resistance at the weekly MA10. Chasing longs at this level isn’t cost-effective; the risk-reward ratio isn’t favorable.
Second, market liquidity is improving but still has risks. Recently, large on-chain transactions have increased significantly, and ETFs have shifted from net outflows to net inflows. This indicates institutional buying is resuming. However, I’ve observed that this rally has created a "vampire effect" on altcoins, with market liquidity mainly concentrated on Bitcoin, not fully exploding across the board.
Third, there’s still uncertainty in the news. The war is ongoing, and the Fed’s March meeting (March 19) is approaching. If there’s news of war easing or a hawkish Fed stance, profit-taking above $74,000 could easily trigger a sell-off.
Therefore, my plan is:
· If holding: continue to hold the core position without change, aiming to capture the trend in the second half of the halving cycle.
· If adding: patiently wait for a pullback. The first support is around $70,000 (the top-bottom reversal point). If it stabilizes there, I might consider adding a bit.
· If out of position: this is a tricky spot; I suggest small positions or waiting for a confirmed breakout above $78,000 before entering on the right side. Chasing now risks getting caught in a "flagpole."
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Overall, Warsh’s nomination has created a strong market expectation of "personnel change = liquidity injection," combined with safe-haven capital inflows driven by geopolitical conflicts, pushing prices to new highs. But we must clearly recognize that policy shifts take time, and prices often run ahead of reality.
At this critical juncture, instead of betting on a one-sided move, it’s better to be cautious. Protect your positions, keep some bullets in reserve—whether it’s a true breakout or a "dead cat bounce," we’ll have room to respond.
Wishing everyone smooth trading at Gate Square, and a prosperous Year of the Horse! 🐴🚀