UBS's Teves Sees Gold Potentially Reaching $5,000 as Uncertainty Drives Demand

As macroeconomic uncertainty continues to mount globally, precious metals markets have become increasingly pivotal for portfolio management. According to recent analysis from Joni Teves, a precious metals strategist at UBS, the current surge in gold prices reflects a fundamental shift in how investors across all segments—from institutions to retail traders to central banks—are positioning for economic volatility. Teves emphasizes that diversified allocation into gold represents a critical hedge against systemic risks, with multiple market participants simultaneously increasing their exposure to golden assets.

What’s Fueling the Gold Rally and Beyond

Teves outlines several interconnected factors driving gold’s momentum. The primary catalyst remains macro uncertainty, which has prompted institutional portfolios and central bank reserves to shift toward safer havens. This multi-stakeholder demand—spanning large institutional investors, individual market participants, and sovereign nations—has created sustained buying pressure. According to Teves’ projections, gold could test the psychologically significant $5,000/ounce level during the first half of 2026 if concerns surrounding Federal Reserve independence continue to escalate. The strategist views this milestone as achievable given current geopolitical and monetary policy dynamics.

Silver and Base Metals Position for Strength

Beyond gold, Teves identifies considerable upside potential in the precious metals complex. Silver prices are poised to benefit from the bullish gold dynamics while simultaneously addressing its own supply-demand equilibrium improvements, potentially approaching or exceeding the $100/ounce threshold this year. Meanwhile, the copper market exhibits increasingly attractive supply-side constraints. Driven by accelerating demand from energy transition initiatives and infrastructure development, copper’s supply-demand structure continues to tighten, suggesting upward pressure on prices. This trajectory reflects Teves’ broader thesis that macro uncertainty is reshaping entire commodity complexes, not merely isolated markets. The convergence of multiple bullish factors—policy uncertainty, energy transition acceleration, and geopolitical tensions—creates a multi-year backdrop favoring precious and base metals, according to the UBS strategist’s assessment.