The Federal Reserve has a 97.3% probability of not cutting interest rates｜Impact on the crypto market (summary points)

According to CME "Federal Reserve Watch": The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by March is 2.7%, with a 97.3% chance of holding rates steady. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by April is 12.5%, with an 87.3% chance of no change, and a 0.3% chance of a total 50 basis point cut. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 30.7%.

1. Key Conclusions
Short-term: Neutral to stable, no clear bearish signals; medium-term: suppressing a major bull run, mainly volatile

2. Direct Impacts
- Sentiment: Expectations are being realized, panic easing, BTC/mainstream coins mainly range-bound
- Capital: US dollar liquidity remains tight, limited institutional inflow, hard to see major trend upward
- Leverage: High interest rates persist, high-leverage contracts are prone to liquidation, volatility will amplify

3. Key Time Point Impacts
- March: Almost certain no rate cut → sideways consolidation
- April: Low probability of rate cut (≈12.5%) → continue bottoming out
- June: Rate cut expectations rise (≈30.7%) → potential rebound window

4. Trading Recommendations
- Short-term: Buy low, sell high, strictly control positions, avoid chasing highs
- Mid-term: Wait until June rate cut signals are clearer before increasing allocations
- Risk aversion: Minimize high-leverage positions and small-cap coins