Tonight's non-farm payroll data is a key variable influencing the short-term trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The core logic boils down to two points:

1. If employment data exceeds expectations (strong employment)
- The Federal Reserve will be more hesitant to cut interest rates, and the US dollar and Treasury yields will rise.
- The opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and Ethereum increases, leading to capital outflows and a high likelihood of price pressure downward.
2. If employment data falls far below expectations (weak employment)
- Expectations for rate cuts will intensify, and the US dollar and Treasury yields will decline.
- As "digital gold" and risk assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum are more likely to attract capital back, and prices may rebound.

⚠️ Coupled with Middle East conflicts and rising oil prices:

- Rising oil prices will push inflation higher. Even with weak employment, the Federal Reserve may not dare to cut rates easily, creating stagflation expectations, which exert double pressure on the crypto market.
- When geopolitical conflicts escalate, people first rush to buy gold and US Treasuries for safety. The "safe-haven" attribute of Bitcoin will temporarily weaken, and prices may fall accordingly.

💡 Trading suggestions:

- Before the data: control your positions, avoid leverage, watch more and act less.
- After the data: if employment is strong, reduce risk by trimming positions; if employment is weak, look for rebound opportunities but stay alert to repeated volatility.
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