#OilPricesSurge

The global energy market has been turned upside down in a matter of days and the shockwaves are being felt in every corner of the world economy. What started as a geopolitical flashpoint has rapidly evolved into one of the most significant oil supply disruptions in recent memory.
Following coordinated U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran at the end of February 2026, global crude prices exploded almost instantly. Brent crude surged from around $70 a barrel to above $83 within days and by Friday March 7 oil had spiked above $90 per barrel, its highest level since 2023. WTI crude jumped more than 8.6 percent in a single session, catching markets completely off guard.
The epicentre of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly one fifth of the world's seaborne oil trade passes through this narrow chokepoint every single day. Since the conflict began, tanker transits through the strait collapsed from an average of 24 vessels per day down to just four, with shipping companies and insurers pulling back over fears of direct attacks. Two vessels were struck in Gulf waters in the opening days of the conflict. That is not a disruption. That is a near total shutdown of a critical artery of global energy supply.
The consequences are rippling fast. U.S. gasoline prices jumped from $2.98 to $3.32 per gallon in just five days, breaking a 13 week streak of prices below the $3.00 mark. European natural gas markets surged more than 20 percent over 48 hours. Goldman Sachs has already raised its Q2 Brent crude forecast by $10 and warned that five weeks of Hormuz disruption could push oil to $100 per barrel. Analysts at Rystad Energy estimate that roughly 15 million barrels per day of crude are currently being blocked from reaching global markets.
The macro fallout is serious. Equity markets have taken a beating, with the S&P 500 recording its worst week since October. Airline stocks, freight companies and cruise lines led the losses as fuel cost fears mounted. Inflation expectations are climbing and the Federal Reserve now faces a nightmare scenario where a weakening jobs market and rising energy prices pull policy in opposite directions at the same time.
The world was sitting on relatively healthy oil stockpiles going into this crisis and China holds significant strategic reserves in storage. Those buffers may buy some time. But if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for weeks rather than days, the economic consequences will become far harder to absorb.
Energy markets are pricing in uncertainty at a scale not seen in years. The next few weeks will define whether this is a sharp but short spike or the beginning of a prolonged supply shock that reshapes the global economy for the rest of 2026.