Circle's moment of reversal: stock price doubles, on-chain transactions surpass USDT, precise positioning for Agent payments

Author: Jae, PANews

In today’s global financial landscape, the crumbling old Babel Tower of traditional payment systems is being fiercely challenged by new forces.

On March 10, Circle’s stock price broke through $110, doubling from its low point earlier this year. Behind this rebound is a reevaluation of the valuation logic for the “stablecoin issuance” business model in the capital markets.

From the jumping stock price on the NYSE, to the trillions of dollars flowing on-chain, to small payments circulating among AI Agents—while people still criticize cryptocurrencies for lacking innovation and chase AI trends—Circle has quietly secured its position in the settlement network dominance and Agent currency sovereignty.

Behind the doubling of stock price, geopolitical crises have unexpectedly become a catalyst

In less than nine months, Circle completed its IPO, marking its entry into mainstream capital markets, and passed the growth test of “rebirth.”

During the initial speculative frenzy after listing, Circle, as the first stablecoin company to go public, soared from an issuance price of $31 to $260, then declined to around $50. After experiencing this pain, Circle’s stock price surged again, breaking the $110 barrier.

Circle has undergone a fundamental shift from “speculative growth” to “performance-driven growth.” The financial report released in February was a turning point. Circle’s total revenue for fiscal year 2025 reached $2.7 billion, a 64% increase year-over-year. In Q4 2025 alone, revenue hit $770 million, up 77% year-over-year, far exceeding market expectations.

A detail in the financial report deserves special attention: the $70 million net loss for FY2025 was mainly due to $424 million in equity compensation expenses related to the IPO.

Excluding this one-time non-cash item, Circle’s profitability improves significantly, with a net profit of $133 million in Q4, revealing its true bottom line with notable growth.

Circle is demonstrating the typical operational leverage of a fintech giant: the larger the circulation scale, the lower the marginal cost, and the more substantial the profit.

Complex global geopolitical games have also unexpectedly benefited stablecoin issuers. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, Brent crude oil prices have risen about 15% in a week. This resurgence of inflation expectations further reduces the likelihood of rate cuts, and maintaining high interest rates creates a better profit environment for Circle, which mainly earns from treasury yields.

Mizuho Securities analyst Dan Dolev believes that the surge in oil prices and resulting inflationary pressure will cause the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts. According to CME FedWatch, the market’s probability prediction of “no rate cut in 2026” has risen from 79.9% a month ago to 97.3%.

For ordinary companies, high interest rates mean higher financing costs, but for Circle, high rates translate into higher reserve income. As long as rates stay high, Circle’s interest margin income will remain substantial.

Currently, the circulation of USDC has reached $753 billion, a 72% increase year-over-year in the quarter. Even small fluctuations in interest margins can have a huge leverage effect on Circle’s net profit.

This “Higher for Longer” interest rate environment has boosted Circle’s valuation multiples, surpassing its short-term revenue fluctuations.

It’s worth noting that this recent rally also reflects recognition of Circle’s “settlement technology premium.” USDC’s on-chain transaction volume in Q4 last year surged to $11.9 trillion, a 247% increase year-over-year.

Therefore, besides being a “yield spread” asset management firm, Circle is also a settlement technology network that processes over $10 trillion in quarterly transactions, enough to threaten traditional payment giants.

Of course, the capital market’s attitude is not entirely unreserved. Despite the strong stock performance, the over $47 million in insider sales by Circle executives over the past 90 days cast a shadow, somewhat affecting investor sentiment.

USDC monthly transfers surpass USDT, signaling a shift in power

In February, the stablecoin sector witnessed a moment of overtaking. According to Allium, the total monthly transfer volume across the entire market reached $1.8 trillion, setting a new record.

Behind this figure, the power shift in “fund flow velocity” is more intriguing than market cap growth.

While USDT still dominates with a market cap of $184 billion, USDC has achieved a turnaround in flow velocity. In February, USDC handled about $1.26 trillion in transfers, nearly 70% of the total. Flow velocity determines who is truly the lifeblood of the market.

From a monetary nature perspective, USDT is increasingly approaching a store of value, mainly held in centralized exchange margin accounts; whereas USDC is evolving into a medium of circulation, rapidly expanding in institutional settlement, prediction markets, and trade payments.

Circle’s explosive growth in February was mainly driven by its ecosystem positioning.

Visa’s deep integration served as a catalyst. By introducing USDC settlement between acquirers and card issuers, traditional payment processes bypassed complex correspondent banking systems, enabling 24/7 settlement. This means that even on weekends when banks are closed, cross-border merchant funds can be settled on-chain in USDC, greatly improving capital efficiency.

The rise of Polymarket also provides on-chain demand validation. As a primary settlement currency, USDC plays the role of “universal currency” in betting on major global events, significantly increasing its turnover rate.

Additionally, Circle’s penetration into emerging markets like Latin America and Africa is beginning to show results. Local businesses increasingly use USDC to hedge against currency devaluation and for cross-border trade settlement. In these regions, stablecoins are no longer just speculative tools but essential for survival.

Eliminating micro-payment pain points, USDC aims to become the “Agent financial primitive”

If $1.8 trillion in monthly transaction volume marks society’s acceptance of stablecoins, then 140 million AI Agent payments heralds the arrival of the “Agent finance” era.

Over the past nine months, more than 400,000 AI Agents with purchasing power have demonstrated high payment activity, with 98.6% of transactions conducted in USDC.

Why USDC?

Circle’s Global Market Head Peter Schroeder cited data showing that the average transaction size for AI Agent payments is only $0.31. This tiny amount exposes a fundamental pain point of Agent economy: micro-payments.

AI Agents need to pay for API calls, compute rental, data acquisition, and other costs when executing tasks. In traditional banking or credit card systems, processing a $0.31 transfer can cost more than the transaction itself. This high-cost structure makes it difficult for Agents to pay through conventional channels.

However, the economic logic is only superficial; the deeper reason Agents prefer USDC is the technological components Circle provides.

Circle’s programmable toolkit allows developers to embed wallet management directly into AI code. Using the Model Context Protocol (MCP) server, developers can enable AI models like Claude, Cursor, or Windsurf to generate scripts that call USDC payments directly. This ease of development has made USDC the default choice for Agent payments.

Cross-chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) solves the “last mile” problem. Agents typically operate on low-cost, high-concurrency Layer 2 or high-performance mainnets like Base or Solana. On these networks, USDC transfers cost less than a cent and settle within seconds. CCTP enables seamless liquidity migration across chains, which is especially important for AI Agents that require frequent cross-chain resource calls.

Circle is crossing its “Golden Cross.” Fundamentals are raising valuation multiples, ecosystem positioning fuels growth expectations, and AI Agent payments open up blue ocean opportunities.

In a world full of uncertainty, the best business is to become a reliable infrastructure. Circle is at the intersection of settlement network dominance and Agent currency sovereignty, laying the groundwork for the upcoming AI civilization, with the first glimpses of a “central bank” in the digital economy era emerging.