U.S. February CPI Data Preview: Sticky Inflation to Be Tested, Fed Policy Path Adds Uncertainty

Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. February CPI data will be released, with the market focusing on inflation trends and their guidance for Federal Reserve policy. The data shows that the unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate remains at the expected 2.40%, matching the previous value. The seasonally adjusted monthly CPI is expected to be 0.3%, higher than the previous 0.2%. The core CPI monthly and annual rates are expected to be roughly in line with previous figures.

Overall, the market anticipates that February inflation will show a "generally strong overall, with moderate core inflation." Rising energy prices earlier may boost the overall CPI, but declines in used cars, airline tickets, and a slowdown in housing inflation could suppress core inflation. However, Middle East geopolitical conflicts pushing oil prices higher may pose upside risks to March and subsequent inflation.

These data are unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's March stance of holding steady, but if core inflation exceeds expectations, it could reinforce their cautious approach to rate cuts; if inflation cools more than expected, it may boost expectations for rate cuts later in the year, causing fluctuations in the dollar and precious metals.