Bitcoin (BTC) Market Logic Analysis

Actually, the logic behind Bitcoin is quite simple:
Many people say it's a bear market now, but the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations haven't even fully materialized yet, so it's not truly a bear market in the real sense.

Since October 11, Bitcoin has shown a clear divergence from gold and the US stock market. The recent weakness is mainly driven by sentiment and liquidity factors.
This current bull run from 15,000 to 120,000 is only the final stage of a three-wave weekly correction, and the probability of a complete five-wave decline is very low.

The macro environment isn't as pessimistic as it seems. I tend to compare the current situation to the post-519 movement in 2021:
Bottoming → Consolidation and shakeout → Breakout above previous highs
There are gaps above on the monthly and weekly charts that need to be filled. Currently, the market's bearish sentiment is too concentrated, which actually favors bottoming.

Current strategy: Confidently hold long positions.

Personal opinion, for reference only!