Market Analysis from the Perspective of the Elliott Wave Theory on Bitcoin: Is a March Surge to 79,000 Possible?

First, let's look at the larger cycle. On the weekly chart, the current trend is very clear: a dominant downtrend, and the correction is not yet complete. Bitcoin has fallen from the high of 126,000, breaking through multiple moving averages along the way. Currently, it is only in a rebound phase and has not reversed the main trend. Pay special attention to the 250-day moving average, which is the annual line, now around 56,000. It will gradually move up to about 58,000, and this level is a very critical long-term support for this year.

Next, let's examine the volume. The volume during the second wave of this decline is even stronger than during the first wave, indicating that the bearish momentum has not yet been fully released. On the weekly chart, the downtrend is far from over, so everyone should keep this in mind.

In the short term, on the daily chart, we focus on the rebound wave. I previously mentioned that after breaking 72,000, the daily rebound wave is officially established. Currently, this wave is still ongoing, with no sign of ending. The key point to watch next is whether it will form a "third buy" structure on the daily chart—that is, after the rebound, if the price retraces without entering the central zone, forming a classic third buy pattern. Once this pattern appears, the strength will be very significant.

Now, let's discuss the most concerned aspects: the space and magnitude of the move. From the low of 65K, after rising to 66K, the price must break through the previous wave's amplitude to be considered a genuine strengthening. I have measured it; the previous increase was about 17%. This means that this rebound must also reach the same strength to confirm a real upward trend.

In the short term, support levels are around 65,000–66,000. If this support cannot hold, the price will test the previous year's moving average zone of 56,000–58,000.

Finally, the outlook for March:
As long as the daily rebound structure remains intact and volume supports a steady hold above 72,000, there is a strong possibility of pushing towards the 77,000–79,000 range. It is not out of reach. Currently, the market is highly volatile with intense bulls and bears competition, but structurally, the conditions are favorable for a rally.