2026-03-11 11:57:07

All eyes are on today’s 🇺🇸CPI data at 8:30 AM ET.

Inflation is expected to come in at 2.4%, the same as last time.
But today’s CPI will be crucial because the latest US unemployment data came in worse than expected, with the rate rising to 4.4% vs 4.3% expected.
That is a sign the labor market is starting to weaken.
Now imagine this scenarion...
If inflation comes in hotter than expected while unemployment keeps rising, the economy could move into a dangerous zone known as stagflation.
And that is the Fed’s nightmare.
If the Fed raises rates to fight inflation, unemployment could get worse.
If the Fed cuts rates to support growth, inflation could rise further.
That is why today’s CPI is not just another data release.
It could shape what the Fed does next and where markets move from here.

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