Trump was played? He admitted defeat yesterday, but Iran is not backing down! They’ve started fighting again. How should Bitcoin operate? Let’s take a look.

1. Just now, believing the rumors about Trump’s negotiations, three cargo ships attempting to pass through the strait were attacked by Iran, and all crew abandoned ship and fled. Nearly two weeks into the war, no Western oil tanker has been able to pass through the strait. Is oil prices about to surge again?
2. Now, Bitcoin’s trend is basically no longer following candlestick charts; it’s moving with Trump and oil prices every day. Yesterday, Trump admitted defeat, oil prices plummeted 30%, and Bitcoin surged 10%. But when the market looked back, the situation hadn’t improved; countries’ oil reserves are nearing depletion.
3. Our current rational approach is to set short positions at multiple resistance levels around $BTC , because although the Middle East is highly uncertain, the Federal Reserve’s decision not to cut interest rates on March 18 is a definite negative signal, making it a good opportunity for us to position.
4. Currently, Bitcoin’s resistance is near previous peaks at 72,000 and 74,000. As for 77,000, it’s not necessarily reachable unless Trump truly declares a ceasefire. Stronger support levels are around 68,000; if it drops to this level, I will add a long position to catch a rebound. The current support at 69,200 is somewhat helpful but not strong enough; 68,000 would be a safer choice.
5. The market has been extremely chaotic these days, stirred up by Trump and Iran, causing turmoil not only in Bitcoin but also in oil and US stocks, which have been wildly fluctuating. Truly exhausting for everyone.
Our trading should also be more conservative, operating with lower leverage. But the overall logic remains unchanged: it’s still a bear market. We can gradually build some long-term short positions during rebounds. I have patience; a further decline is only a matter of time, and when that happens, it will be our moment to harvest!