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U.S. February CPI: As Good as Expected
Many Wall Street desks view this month's CPI data as quite positive:
- Core CPI +0.2% MoM, down from the previous month
- Housing continues to cool down
- Shelter 2.96% YoY (lowest since 2021)
- Rent +0.1% MoM (lowest in 4 years)
- Service inflation slowed from 0.295% to 0.204%
-> The disinflation trend continues, giving the Fed more room to discuss interest rate cuts this year.
However, there are still cautious opinions:
- Headline +0.3% MoM remains quite high
- Supercore CPI +0.35% MoM remains above the Fed's desired level
- Services remain the main source of inflation
- Notably, fuel prices have surged month-over-month.
-> If oil prices continue to rise amid Middle East tensions, CPI will certainly not be positive in the coming months, and the rate cut timetable will be pushed back.