3.12 Evening Analysis

Bitcoin is currently under pressure from the MA7 and MA30 moving averages. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands has been effectively broken through. The KDJ indicator shows a death cross pointing downward. Short-term bullish momentum has been completely exhausted, and the weak structure is clear. From a high level, a bearish pattern of "rally and pullback—moving average inflection—Bollinger Band opening" has formed. The first support below is 69,800; if broken, the next target is the 69,000–68,800 range.

Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 will be released. The previous figure was 213,000, with an expectation of 215,000. If the actual data exceeds expectations (actual > 215,000), it will indicate a cooling U.S. labor market. The market will reinforce expectations of delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts, causing the dollar index to strengthen, which is directly bearish for cryptocurrencies and will lead Bitcoin to further decline.

Trading suggestion: Short at 70,800–71,300, target 68,800–69,300.