After CPI data, if it completely matches expectations (2.4%), the market will interpret it short-term as "good news exhausted" or "bad news priced in." Since the data hasn't deteriorated, previous concerns are temporarily relieved, which may trigger some short-covering and short-term longs entering, driving prices to rally briefly and test the resistance zone of 70,500-71,000.

· Phase Two (Decline): After market sentiment cools, attention will quickly shift to geopolitical risks and future inflation concerns. Multiple institutions point out that February data hasn't fully reflected the oil price surge caused by recent Middle East tensions, and March inflation will likely rebound significantly to around 3.1%. This "inflation rebound" expectation will reinforce concerns about the Fed maintaining higher rates for longer, causing risk assets (including Bitcoin) to face pressure again, with prices pulling back after rallying and testing support at 69,000 or even lower.
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