# Cryptocurrency's Strong Rebound This Round, Many Caught Short at Lows, Fed Rate Decision "Determines Victory and Defeat, Also Decides Life and Death"

## I. Fed March Rate Decision Forecast and Impact on Crypto

Dot Plot: Year-end rate cut expectations revised down to 1 cut, first rate cut delayed until September; maintaining 3.50%-3.75% unchanged probability is higher;

## II. US Stock Market: Volatile Weakness, US-Iran Geopolitics

High rates plus geopolitical uncertainty suppress growth stocks, Nasdaq oscillates and falters, funds shift to risk-averse defensive positioning;

Conflict neither escalates nor eases, oil prices oscillate at $95-100, inflation pressure persists;

## III. Crypto Market Outlook: Range-Bound Oscillation, Bearish Bias

Short-term (1-2 weeks): Brief rebound after decision lands, then pullback, BTC focus on 78,000-79,000 resistance at highs;

Medium-term (1-2 months): Delayed rate cuts, high rates suppression, bearish bias dominant, BTC explores 68,000-65,000 support at lows.

Guard against cascading effects: Geopolitical escalation → Oil price surge → Fed turns more hawkish → Crypto accelerates downside

The Fed's current position is extremely awkward; on one side is the ice of economic cooling, on the other side is the fire of inflation rebound, Powell stuck in the middle dare not move.