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The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting on March 19th - the market has widely anticipated no rate cut in March, and the decision itself is likely to have been priced in ahead of time, with limited volatility expected.
Two key points to watch:
1. Dot plot: If it signals a more hawkish stance (only 1 rate cut for the full year), it will significantly weigh on risk asset sentiment.
2. Powell's remarks: Focus on his statements regarding inflation, oil prices, and the pace of rate cuts. Any language suggesting "higher for longer" would be viewed as bearish.
Overall, the market has already priced in hawkish expectations, and the meeting is more likely to be a bearish outcome. The key question is whether the hawkish tone exceeds current market expectations.