In today’s video, beyond covering short-term price action and key levels, I explained three separate alpha signals.

The first alpha suggests we are very close to a level where price historically tops, based on the cyclical nature of liquidations within a typical bearish regime. It didn’t quite reach the 0% line — sitting around 2% — but it’s close enough to read as a bearish signal.
The second alpha indicates that we haven’t yet seen a liquidity spike during this bear flag. In a bear flag, price pushes up and is supposed to generate pain — but that pain hasn’t registered in the percentiles yet. This means we could dump from here, or we could continue higher until that signal triggers. Crucially, we do not need that signal to dump. I know many of you watched the video and concluded: “He said the signal hasn’t triggered, so we must go up.” That’s not what it means. The takeaway from that alpha is simply that we don’t yet have a quality sell signal — and I often enter positions before that signal appears. That’s it.
The third alpha looks at the Fear & Greed Index. Historically, during this type of period, price tends to rally into the resistance of a downward-sloping trendline applied to the index. Concretely, that means the Fear & Greed Index should push up to around 47 — after having been below 10 — and then consolidate in the 15–18 range for a period while the market finds its bear market bottom, before eventually breaking out of the trendline and initiating the real bull run. We are not there yet. A secondary implication of this alpha is that some additional upside remains possible.
So two out of three alphas were signalling that there may still be upside ahead. I understand this can seem like the alphas were “wrong” given today’s price action — but that perception only holds if you can’t distinguish between timeframes. These alphas describe a period, not a day trade call. When an alpha points up, it means upside is available — not necessarily from today. We could still see 82K next week after first visiting 65K. Nobody knows the exact path.
Please be careful how you interpret these videos. If an alpha’s timeframe isn’t clear to you — whether it applies to the next few hours, the next few weeks, or the next few months — ask. I sometimes forget to specify that in the video, and I’d much rather answer a clarifying question than watch people rush to conclusions that were never part of the analysis.