I. Macroeconomic Background: Fed's "Hawkish Pause" Pressures Risk Assets

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Interest rates held steady at 3.5%-3.75% → In line with expectations, but "consecutive second pause" signals policy entering an observation period.

Dot plot raises long-term rate expectations → Market previously expected one rate cut in 2026, which remains intact, but "long-term federal funds rate expectation median slightly increased" implies elevated rates may persist longer.

Inflation outlook tilted hawkish → "Firmly committed to restoring inflation to 2%" and raised PCE forecast → Market expects further cooling of rate cut expectations for the year.

Powell's comments → "Will not cut rates if inflation shows no progress," "possibility of further rate hikes mentioned" → Clearly signals "higher for longer" stance.

Market reaction → Gold fell $30, Nasdaq decline expanded over 1%, Treasury yields rose → Risk assets under pressure.