Polymarket BTC 5 minutes: Trading volume explodes, reaches $25 million in 40 hours

The 5-minute BTC market just launched on Polymarket has created a notable phenomenon within the prediction trading community. According to data from Blockworks, trading volume during the initial startup phase far exceeded initial expectations, with an impressive figure recorded just after 40 hours of operation.

New Market Sparks Excitement: Revenue Surpasses Expectations

Trading revenue accumulated to $25.2 million USD within 40 hours of launch, according to researcher Kunal Doshi. This figure indicates high community interest, with an average of about $52,000 USD in trading volume generated every 5-minute window.

Compared to the previously active 15-minute BTC market, the trading revenue of this new market has reached approximately 10% to 20% of the activity level of the 15-minute market, an impressive ratio for a newly launched market.

Opportunity Traders: Profitable Yes/No Strategies

Chain data analysis shows a special group of traders taking advantage of this opportunity. Specifically, 7.1% of unique addresses buy both Yes and No options within the same time window, testing arbitrage trading strategies.

Although this number is limited, their trading volume accounts for up to 7.5% of the total market trading volume. More notably, orders from this group make up 23.4% of all orders on the market, indicating they are significantly impacting liquidity.

Their trading behavior is primarily 92.6% buy orders and 72.3% executed via limit orders—suggesting calculated strategies rather than impulsive trades. As a result, 80% of their time windows close with profit, with the median price of Yes plus No at $0.9823 USD.

Future Volume: When Structural Liquidity Enters

Current data only reflects the early stage of the 5-minute BTC market. Experts believe the market is clearly exhibiting arbitrage behavior—an indicator of greater growth potential.

If professional market makers and structured exchanges are introduced to provide deeper liquidity, trading volume within 5 minutes is expected to surpass the activity level of the 15-minute market. This could make Polymarket’s 5-minute BTC market one of the highest-volume prediction markets on the platform.