Deep Good Article】Why I Never Encourage My Relatives and Friends to Invest in Bitcoin

Often, relatives and friends will bring up in different settings, “I heard you're into Bitcoin, can you help me get started?” Usually, I come up with various excuses and politely decline.

The story begins a few years ago with Dogecoin. At that time, I had only been in the crypto space for a few years, during the 2021 bull market when cryptocurrencies were booming. I was young, confident, and didn’t know what being low-key meant. Some friends knew I was making money and kept insisting, “Take me in too...”

Back then, I didn’t think too much, plus Dogecoin had a large market cap and Elon Musk was endorsing it. I didn’t hesitate and jumped in with friends. If I remember correctly, the entry cost was around $0.50. I won’t go into the full story here, but you can look up historical K-line charts if you're interested...

Now, those friends don’t even reply when I ask about them...

That’s why...

I want to take a moment to talk about this—why I never encourage my relatives and friends to invest in crypto, especially Bitcoin, even though I know it’s a highly probable success (note I still say “probably” and “high probability,” not “certain” or “guaranteed”).

It’s not because I’m stingy, not because I’m unkind. Quite the opposite, it’s because I care too much about them.

1. Bitcoin’s volatility is not something ordinary people can handle

Let’s look at some data. In 2021, Bitcoin rose from $30,000 in January to $65,000 in April, then dropped to $29,000 within three months—a decline of over 55%. In 2022, it fell from $48,000 to $16,000—a drop of over 65%.

That’s not even the most extreme. From December 2017 to December 2018, Bitcoin went from nearly $20,000 down to just over $3,000—a decline of more than 85%.

What does that mean?

If you invested 100,000 yuan, you might only have 15,000 yuan after half a year. And that 15,000 could still face the risk of being cut in half again.

I’ve seen too many people rush in at the high point and sell at the low. They’re not stupid; they just overestimate their psychological resilience.

Do you think you can withstand a 50% retracement? That’s before you’ve actually experienced it. When you really lose real money, the sleepless nights are more real than any candlestick chart.

Relatives and friends ask me—they see “it’s rising,” they see “a chance to get rich.” But I know—if they really get in, they’ll face a rollercoaster ride.

Why should I make that decision for them?

2. Making money doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll thank you; losing money will likely make them blame you

This is the cruel reality of human nature.

Suppose I actually bring relatives and friends into the market—what could happen?

First scenario: They make money.

They might think it’s because of their good judgment or luck, or they might thank me. Maybe for a few days or months. But over time, they’ll feel it’s what they deserved. Human nature is like that—success is attributed to oneself.

And after making money, they’ll complain it’s not enough. “Why didn’t you let me buy more?” “If you had introduced me earlier, I’d have earned more.” Have you heard these words?

Second scenario: They lose money.

That’s obvious. If they lose 100%, they’ll blame you. Even if they made their own decision, even if you advised them not to go all-in, even if the market suddenly changed—deep down, they’ll think you brought them in.

I’ve seen a friend bring his younger brother into crypto trading. The brother lost 300,000 yuan and they became estranged. The brother said in the family chat, “If it weren’t for you, I wouldn’t have lost so much.” The older brother replied, “I told you to hold and not to sell, but you wouldn’t listen.” But did it help? No.

3. Asymmetrical information breeds inherent distrust

There’s another point rarely mentioned: when you become the “expert” in the eyes of relatives and friends, the relationship changes.

They’ll think you know some insider info, that you can predict price movements, that you should warn them before they lose money.

But in reality? No one can predict the market.

Bitcoin’s price is influenced by too many factors: macroeconomics, regulations, market sentiment, institutional buying and selling, black swan events. No one can accurately forecast tomorrow’s price.

When I say “I’m not sure,” they don’t believe me. They think I’m hiding something, that I don’t want to help them make money.

When I say “it’s a good time to buy,” they think it’s safe, and go all in. Then when it drops, they blame me.

When I say “it’s time to sell,” they think it will still go up, so they don’t sell. When it drops back down, it’s still my fault. This information asymmetry and resulting distrust are impossible to sustain in any relationship.

If I’m right, they think I’m just lucky. If I’m wrong, they feel I’ve betrayed their trust. No matter how you count it, it’s a loss.

4. Everyone’s perception of risk is completely different

What is risk?

For me, losing 50% might be acceptable because I understand the market’s volatility, I know what I’m doing, I have my own trading strategies and risk management systems.

But for relatives and friends, risk might be “losing 10,000 yuan and feeling heartbroken.”

That cognitive gap is huge.

A relative of mine once told me years ago he wanted to invest in Bitcoin. I asked how much loss he could tolerate. He said, “It’s okay, if I lose it, I lose it.” But he ended up losing 20,000 yuan and kept calling me every day, asking what to do, whether to sell, whether it would go to zero.

He thought he could handle it, but he couldn’t.

Most people are like that. Before they actually lose money, they think they can endure. But when the loss really hits, anxiety and fear completely overwhelm rational judgment.

And at that moment, they’ll desperately seek you out—needing your confidence, your guidance.

Your own trading is already tough enough, and now you have to carry others’ emotional baggage. This isn’t investing; it’s psychological therapy!

5. True help isn’t encouraging them to invest in Bitcoin

So, if I don’t encourage them to invest in Bitcoin, does that mean I ignore them? Of course not.

I’ve done these things: help them build basic investment awareness, teach them what asset allocation is, what risk control means.

Recommend they buy index funds, real estate, government bonds—these are more suitable investment options for most people.

If they really want to learn about cryptocurrencies, I’ll suggest some reliable educational resources, so they can do their own research and make their own decisions.

Real help isn’t giving them fish; it’s teaching them how to fish.

And when teaching them, I make sure to tell them clearly: fishing can also get you dragged into the water.

The crypto market is full of scams and tricks. Without enough knowledge, you’ll just become a leek (a newbie who gets exploited). I don’t want my relatives and friends to become leeks, nor do I want them to become victims because of me.

6. What is the essence of relationships? I’ve been pondering this.

The foundation of relationships among relatives and friends is trust and emotion, not利益. Once利益are involved—especially high-risk利益—the nature of the relationship changes.

You’re no longer just their cousin, friend, or classmate—you become their “investment advisor,” “wealth secret,” or “ATM.” That role switch is irreversible.

If they make money, they want more. If they lose money, they want you to take responsibility. No matter what, the pure emotional connection is gone.

I don’t want to test the relationship with relatives and friends through Bitcoin’s price swings. I don’t want family gatherings to be about “Will Bitcoin go up again?” instead of family talk.

And I definitely don’t want to lose someone I care about because of a market crash. So, I prefer to meet like-minded strangers on the path of Bitcoin growth, rather than risking my relationships with family and friends!