I just saw this wave of decline, and it’s indeed quite fierce. Geopolitical tensions suddenly heat up, and Bitcoin plummeted from 65,500 to 63,000 in less than an hour. Ethereum also dropped to around 1,850. The market directly erased $75 billion in market cap, and this speed is truly suffocating.

I noticed a detail: over 150,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with a total liquidation of $522 million, of which longs accounted for $449 million. But more noteworthy is the derivatives data — futures trading volume hit 76.27 billion, while spot volume was only 7.62 billion. This isn’t genuine selling, but a collective explosion of leveraged positions.

Interestingly, every time there’s a conflict related to Iran in history, it triggers a crypto crash. During the mid-2025 strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Bitcoin dropped to 103,000, then rebounded to 125,000 to set a new high. In April 2024, when Iran launched missiles, Bitcoin fell to 61,000, and a few months later, it broke previous highs. It seems war panic has always been a short-term springboard.

But this time might be different. Before this wave of strikes, the market was already fragile — Bitcoin had fallen nearly 50% from its October high of 126,000. The Fear & Greed Index was only 14, indicating extreme fear. More importantly, the US spot Bitcoin ETF, which had been net buying 46,000 coins since last year, has now turned into a net seller. What does this shift mean? I think many people haven’t fully realized it yet.

Options market data also looks fierce. The largest put position is the 60,000 strike, with over 5,200 contracts, and the 55,000 puts also have 4,657 contracts. Over the past 24 hours, put options trading volume slightly exceeded call options. Major institutions are clearly betting on more pain.

But it’s not all black. I see exchange net flows show 522 Bitcoin leaving platforms, which is a sign of accumulation during retail panic selling. It indicates some are picking up bargains.

The key support level is at 63,100 — the support of the downtrend channel. If it cleanly breaks below this, 60,000 is directly in play. On the upside, 73,000 to 74,000 remains a strong resistance.

The rebound signals are flickering in the pattern, but structurally, caution is still needed. Whether it can rebound ultimately depends on Iran’s next moves. Currently, Bitcoin is around 66,920, and Ethereum is at 2,060, slightly higher than previous lows. If you’re considering buying on dips, you need to think carefully — history may repeat, but only if the market itself doesn’t have other issues.