Just been looking at ETH's macro setup on the higher timeframes and there's something interesting converging right now. We're seeing a multi year trendline test happening at the same time as price is still respecting this giant ascending channel that's been shaping the market for over a year.

Let's break down what's going on. On the monthly chart, ETH is literally sitting right on that green uptrend support line that's been critical for the entire structure. This monthly close is going to matter a lot. If we get a clean close above it, we could see a bounce attempt toward that green horizontal zone overhead, which used to be major supply back in 2022. The thing is, that zone has capped rallies before, so it's not guaranteed we break through cleanly.

Now here's where it gets interesting with the ascending channel dynamics. That giant channel on the monthly has been in place for more than a year and it's consistently framed the major turning points. The upper boundary used to align with local tops around 4,055 and 4,833, while the lower boundary caught bottoms near 1,565 and 1,894. Each time price bounced off these levels, it reinforced the channel's validity. Currently ETH is around 2.06K, so there's still room within the structure.

If this ascending channel holds and price respects both boundaries like it has been doing, the next move would push Ethereum back toward that upper trendline. Based on how steep the channel slope is, that trajectory could point us toward the 6,000 area sometime in mid 2026. This is a continuation scenario assuming the channel remains intact and price keeps cycling between support and resistance.

The risk scenario is if we close below that multi year trendline on the monthly. That would weaken the macro structure significantly and shift focus down to the orange demand zone below. We've already wicked into that area but haven't retested it cleanly on a monthly basis yet. A confirmed break would be concerning for the longer term uptrend.

So basically the ascending channel is still the framework we should be watching. As long as price respects it, we're still in that cyclical uptrend narrative. The monthly close will tell us whether we're maintaining this structure or if we need to prepare for something deeper.