# This does not constitute any investment advice.

1. Short-term trend (1-4 weeks, until April 18, 2026)

Core judgment: High-level oscillation and consolidation, greater risk of pullback than continued surge, likely to fluctuate within the range

1. Current situation and technical analysis (as of April 17)

- Current price: around $2,300-$2,350
- Technical signals: - Overbought: RSI and KDJ indicators both in overbought zone, upward momentum weakening
- Volume contraction and oscillation: rebound with low volume, pullback with increased volume, bulls unable to push higher
- Structure: rapid decline from high levels, slow rise, slight downward shift in center of gravity, weaker than Bitcoin

2. Key range (short-term support and resistance)

- Resistance: $2,380-$2,400 (strong resistance, requires volume to break through)
- Support: - First support: $2,300-$2,317
- Second support: $2,200-$2,230
- Strong support: $2,000-$2,100

3. Short-term scenario forecast

- Baseline (70%): oscillation and pullback within $2,200-$2,400 range, shaking out weak hands
- Optimistic (20%): volume breakout above $2,400, pushing toward around $2,500
- Pessimistic (10%): fall below $2,200, probing $2,000-$2,100 levels

4. Main influencing factors

- Bearish: profit-taking, short-term outflow of institutional ETFs, geopolitical risks
- Bullish: record-high on-chain activity, growth of L2 ecosystem, expectations of Pectra upgrade


2. Long-term trend (1-3 years)

Core judgment: solid fundamentals, long-term value upward, but cyclical fluctuations are expected, making it a core crypto asset

1. Underlying support (long-term bullish logic)

- Leading public chain position: - Over 50% market share in DeFi, absolute dominance in smart contracts
- Q1 2026 on-chain transaction volume and active users hit new highs
- Deflationary mechanism: - EIP-1559 burns + staking lock-up (~29%), annual inflation rate <1%, high usage approaches deflation
- Technological iteration: - Explosion of L2 (second-layer networks), transaction costs significantly reduced, TPS greatly increased
- Deep integration with AI and real-world asset tokenization (RWA)
- Institutionalization: - Becoming standard assets for institutions, continuous integration of ETFs and traditional finance

2. Long-term price range (forecast, not guaranteed)

- 1 year (by end of 2026): - Baseline: $4,500-$5,000
- Optimistic: $6,000-$8,000
- Pessimistic: $2,000-$2,500
- 2-3 years: - If the bull market cycle continues and ecosystem expands, potential to break $10,000+

3. Long-term risks

- Tightening regulatory policies
- Competition from other public chains (e.g., Solana)
- Macroeconomic and interest rate cycle shocks
- Technical security and upgrade risks


3. One-sentence summary

- Short-term (1-4 weeks): mainly oscillation and consolidation at high levels, focus on $2,200-$2,400 range
- Long-term (1-3 years): strong fundamentals, upward value trend, still the second-largest core crypto asset, but with high volatility

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Would you like me to prepare a concise list of key short-term price levels and observation indicators for Ethereum to help you monitor the market later?