#比特币突破7.9万美元 #比特币突破7.9万美元 Bitcoin breaks through $79k with dual signals hidden behind, US and Iran send negotiation signals, should we buy tomorrow or wait for a pullback?

Both bulls and bears are still tugging at the $79k level, with the upcoming FOMC meeting tomorrow, oil prices oscillating at high levels, institutional hesitation and whale greed playing out simultaneously. Since April, Bitcoin has experienced a strong rally from about $67k to nearly $80k, with a monthly increase approaching 15%, marking the best monthly performance in nearly a year. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s catch-up rally has finally started, surpassing $2,400 at the time of writing, with a 24-hour increase of over 3.8%, outperforming Bitcoin’s same-period performance.
However, the market is not uniform—rare “triple divergence” has appeared within the market: ETF has recorded nine consecutive days of inflows, the longest in the year, but perpetual contract funding rates remain negative; geopolitical conflicts and peace talks are circulating, yet oil prices are surging; bulls are advancing fiercely, but whales are quietly turning around. The tug-of-war around the $79k level has lasted several days, and tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could be a turning point for the market.
Bitcoin breaks through $79k with dual signals hidden behind, US and Iran send negotiation signals, should we buy tomorrow or wait for a pullback?
Triple divergence: market tearing under apparent prosperity seems to be a market-wide rise, but internally, three key “divergence signals” have emerged, requiring clarity amidst optimism.
🔴 Divergence One: ETF continuous inflows, but funding rates remain negative
The US spot Bitcoin ETF is in the longest consecutive inflow phase since 2026. SoSoValue data shows that as of April 24, ETF has achieved nine consecutive days of net inflows, accumulating about $21.2 billion since April 14. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT had a total inflow of $184 million by the 26th, with no single-day outflows; as the US and Iran reach a ceasefire agreement, institutional appetite for Bitcoin as a “risk asset” is reignited. The total net assets of spot ETFs have risen to about $101 billion, accounting for 6.57% of BTC’s market cap.
However, sentiment in the futures market is completely opposite. The funding rates for BTC and ETH on major CEX and DEX platforms remain in the bearish zone, with only a few platforms touching the 0.0100% benchmark. Short sellers are paying longs to maintain their positions, indicating derivatives investors are not buying current prices. This coexistence of institutional buying on the spot side and bearish sentiment on the futures side last occurred around the stage bottom in September 2025.
🔴 Divergence Two: US and Iran send peace signals, crude oil prices rise simultaneously
On April 27, WTI crude oil broke through $96/barrel, Brent crude surpassed $101/barrel, both rising over 2% intraday. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market also rose in tandem. This “oil price rise, risk assets also rise” synchronized phenomenon is extremely rare—when safe-haven and speculative flows surge into different markets simultaneously, it indicates that the pricing anchor is shifting from a simple “war vs. peace” dichotomy to a complex multi-factor game.
The tension in US-Iran relations has reached its peak. On April 27, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi visited Russia and met with Putin, while Iran conveyed a three-stage negotiation plan to the US through intermediaries. The first stage focuses on ending the war completely and obtaining guarantees against resumption; the second stage studies the management of the Strait of Hormuz; only in the third stage will nuclear issues be discussed. However, Iran’s red lines in negotiations differ greatly from US positions—Iran demands new legal frameworks for the Strait of Hormuz, compensation, and the lifting of maritime sanctions, which fundamentally conflict with US demands.
Meanwhile, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has destroyed several US-backed groups in Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces, arresting over 150 people. Regardless of statements, the “fighting while negotiating” pattern between US and Iran remains unchanged, and the market continues to bet on the smooth progress of peace talks amid bullish enthusiasm.
🟢 Divergence Three: Bitcoin up 13% in a month, Ethereum’s rally begins
As of April 26, Bitcoin has risen a total of 10.73% over the past month, with a weekly increase of 6.81%. Since the April low of $67,000, the cumulative increase has approached 15%. The BTC/ETH exchange rate has bottomed out and rebounded, with Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin by about 2 percentage points over the week. This rebound shows a clear three-phase rhythm—early April driven mainly by ETF continuous net inflows, mid-April triggered by news of extended US-Iran ceasefire squeezing shorts, and late April shifting to Ethereum’s catch-up rally.
Polymarket’s market forecast gives a 71% probability that BTC will recover $80k before the end of April. Meanwhile, the declining trend in Bitcoin reserves on exchanges also provides additional upward elasticity for prices.
Tomorrow’s Focus: Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting and Powell’s Farewell Speech
On April 28-29, the Federal Reserve will hold the FOMC meeting, which will be Powell’s last as Fed Chair—his term ends on May 15. The Department of Justice has concluded its criminal investigation into him, and markets expect President Trump’s nominee, Kevin Woor, to succeed him after a congressional hearing. CME “FedWatch” data shows a 100% probability of holding rates steady, with only a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut by June. If oil prices stay above $100, even if the Fed wants to cut, it cannot do so immediately. Powell is likely to maintain a neutral, dovish stance in this meeting, but the wording in his farewell speech could temporarily impact the dollar exchange rate and global risk assets.
Operational Suggestions: Strategies for coping with triple divergence
Short-term traders see Bitcoin oscillating narrowly between $77,000 and $79,000, with a “price rise, volume decline” signal on the 4H chart, and MACD at high levels becoming dull, making chasing higher risky. Aggressive traders can try short positions near $79,000–$79,500 with tight stops above $80,500; or wait for a pullback to $77,000 to confirm support before going long.
Breaking the $80,000 psychological barrier is difficult; if the first support at $77,000 breaks, it will test the $75,000 line. It is recommended to be more cautious, less active, and wait for the FOMC’s impact on dollar assets to clarify before making decisions.
Long-term holders should note that the core structure of the “strong spot, weak futures” in this triple divergence is being driven by institutional funds replacing retail sentiment. The ETF’s cost basis for holding Bitcoin is around $81,000, which is a key price level in the current bull-bear battle, and the sustainability of subsequent funds will be a critical variable.
For long-term investors, areas below $75,000 still hold value for phased allocations, with focus on whether US and Iran delegations can resume face-to-face negotiations within the next two weeks—this will be the biggest variable before the end of July.
Core Risk Alerts
FOMC policy uncertainty: Although rate hikes or cuts are not on the agenda, the policy path after Powell’s departure is highly uncertain, and the hawkish or dovish tilt of new Chair Woor will reshape market expectations for the full-year interest rate trajectory.
Vulnerability implied by triple divergence: If spot ETF buying weakens or Ethereum ETF reverses, the ongoing negative funding rate environment could quickly expose market fragility.
US-Iran negotiation deadlock: Trust deficit remains severe; Iran’s Foreign Minister’s visit to Russia on the 27th may be aimed at gaining more leverage for future negotiations. If talks break down again, oil and geopolitical premiums could reprice.
Open interest remains high: BTC open interest is about $56.5 billion, ETH about $32.9 billion, and rapid price fluctuations could trigger liquidations.