Market Outlook

Touched 74 again but faced short-term resistance, awaiting 4H close to determine next move
In last night's analysis, I pointed out that the probability of Bitcoin moving around 70,000 was roughly equal, but leaned toward the upside, with reasons including 1H-level bullish structure, moving averages, and CB positive premium (though I didn't trade based on this)
The market broke through the triangle convergence this morning. I suggested that after Bitcoin breaks through the triangle convergence, it could test the 73,500 region
Yi Lihua's short-selling information also provided theoretical support for the market rally
After US stock market opened today, the price tested up to the key 74 area, then faced significant resistance. Currently, it has pulled back about 1,000 points to around 72,500 in the short term
If the 4H closes at this level, it would form an SFP and lean toward downside, ultimately retesting the 66 region
If the 4H close can hold above 74, I believe the subsequent move will further rally to the 78-81 region
I believe that by late March, eventually holding above 74 and testing 78-81 is highly probable, but the probability of achieving this directly today is lower. I think the probability of breakthrough increases the closer we get to the end of March
Before the breakthrough at the end of March, we can look for pullback lows to accumulate positions, and aim to sell at 78-81
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