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#Ethereum 期货动力指数刚刚转为更深的负值,显示30天变化接近-0.23,而$ETH 在关键支撑位附近徘徊。
结构显示出明显的背离。虽然价格试图稳定,但市场动力持续收缩。这表明看涨参与度减弱,衍生品交易者的激进仓位也在减少。
历史上,持续的30天负值通常预示着波动性扩张。问题在于方向。如果现货需求无法吸收这种压力,低于近期低点的流动性区域将成为吸引点。
然而,极端的负指数区域通常标志着后期的投降。如果资金重置和未平仓合约冷却,强烈的空头挤压仍有可能发生。
动力正在减弱。波动性正在积累。下一轮扩张期不会平静。