Institution: The overall and core CPI year-on-year in the US for September may be close to 3%, and the direction of inflation changes may raise concerns for the Fed.

According to Mars Finance, on October 23, Dean Baker, chief economist at the UK research institution CEPR, stated that the US September CPI data is likely to show a growth rate similar to that of August. The energy component rose by 0.7% in August, and September may also show a rapid growth rate. The household food component increased by 0.6% in August, and the growth in September may slow down. The core CPI monthly rate for September is likely to reach 0.3% again, rounding up to possibly show as 0.4%. Additionally, the overall and core CPI annual rates for September are likely to be close to 3.0%, a full percentage point higher than the Fed's target of 2.0%. For the Fed, the level of inflation may be less concerning than the direction of change. Inflation rates are more likely to rise rather than fall, at least until the full impact of tariffs is passed on to consumers. If new tariffs are implemented and evictions affect more industries, the situation will become more complicated. Unless there is a significant economic recession, it is hard to imagine a scenario where inflation can reach the Fed's target in the short term. ( Jin10 )