Gate latest Crypto Assets market analysis (October 28): Bitcoin 114,000 long and short battle, Ether volume surpasses BTC.

Gate's cryptocurrency market analysis on October 28 shows that Ethereum (ETH) spot trading volume has surpassed Bitcoin (BTC), with a daily trading volume reaching 8.18 billion USD, indicating a significant increase in ecosystem activity. The current price of Bitcoin is around 114,000 USD, and the holding amount of listed companies has exceeded 1 million coins. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 51, which is in the neutral zone.

Bitcoin 114,000 long and short battle, institutional holdings exceed one million

(Source: CoinMarketCap)

The current price of Bitcoin is around 114,000 USD, with a 24-hour increase of +0.16% and a 24-hour trading volume of 12.97 billion USD. A key feature is the continued institutional investment, with publicly listed companies holding over 1 million coins. This milestone indicates that enterprise-level adoption is accelerating, with more and more publicly listed companies incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets as treasury reserve assets.

1 million BTC accounts for about 5% of the circulating supply, with a market value exceeding $114 billion at current prices. This large-scale institutional holding provides strong support for Bitcoin prices, as publicly traded companies are typically long-term holders and are unlikely to panic sell due to short-term fluctuations. Technically, BTC is consolidating around $110,000, with intensified long-short battles. This price range may be a consolidation phase before a new round of increases, or it could be the starting point for a pullback after a high-level consolidation.

In terms of trading volume, although BTC's daily trading volume of 12.97 billion USD has been surpassed by ETH, it remains at a high level, indicating that market activity has not diminished. The liquidity of mainstream coins is good, and prices are relatively stable, with a 24-hour volatility of only 0.16% and a very small bid-ask spread. This low volatility combined with high trading volume typically occurs during a calm period before a major trend forms.

BTC Key Technical Levels:

Current Price: 114,000 USD

Key Support: $110,000 psychological level

Key Resistance: $120,000 round number

Short-term stop-loss suggestion: ±5% (from 108,300 to 119,700 USD)

ETH spot trading volume historically surpasses BTC

The current price of Ethereum is $4,131, with a 24-hour increase of +0.26% and a 24-hour trading volume of $8.18 billion. The most important signal in this cryptocurrency market analysis is that ETH spot trading volume has surpassed BTC for the first time, marking a significant milestone in the history of the cryptocurrency market. For a long time, Bitcoin has held the top spot in trading volume, and Ethereum's surpassing of spot volume indicates a significant increase in its ecosystem activity.

This kind of surpassing is not accidental. The Ethereum ecosystem has recently undergone several significant developments, including the maturation of Layer-2 solutions, ongoing innovation in DeFi protocols, and the revival of the NFT market. More importantly, institutional investors are increasing their allocation to Ethereum, recognizing its long-term value as a “world computer.” ETH is fluctuating around $4,300, and the market is paying attention to the funding flow in September. If it can break through this resistance level, it may open a new round of upward cycle.

From a technical perspective, ETH's 24-hour volatility is only 0.26%, indicating that the price is relatively stable. The trading depth is sufficient, the bid-ask spread is extremely small, and the liquidity is in good health. This stability, combined with record trading volume, suggests that a large amount of institutional capital is entering in an orderly manner, rather than speculative trading by retail investors. For cryptocurrency market analysis, this is an extremely bullish signal.

Shanzhai coins soaring indicates rising speculative sentiment

CATDOG 24-hour change +42.24%, trading volume 20,000 USD, characterized by high volatility and strong speculation. The drastic fluctuations of this small market cap token are often seen as a signal of increased market risk appetite in cryptocurrency market analysis. When investors are willing to chase high-risk, high-return altcoins, it indicates an overall market sentiment leaning towards greed.

OL 24-hour price increase +27.3%, Trading Volume 710,000 USD, characterized by data value projects, community attention rising. Compared to the speculative nature of CATDOG, OL at least has a narrative support of data value, and the Trading Volume of 710,000 USD also indicates its liquidity is better than the former. FLOCK3S 24-hour price increase +23.03%, Trading Volume 70,000 USD, characterized by leverage trading tools, with higher volatility.

The common characteristic of these three altcoins is their astonishing price increases but extremely low trading volume, indicating that their prices can easily be manipulated by a small amount of funds. For retail investors, such assets carry extremely high risks, and heavy participation is not recommended. However, their collective rise does reflect an increase in market speculative sentiment, which is often a precursor to the acceleration phase of a bull market.

Fear and Greed Index 51, Neutral to Cautiously Optimistic

The technical indicators综合判断显示, the Fear and Greed Index is at 51, in the neutral range. This reading means that the market is neither in extreme fear nor extreme greed, and investor sentiment is relatively rational. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, and volatility is within a controllable range. This balanced state is usually regarded as a healthy market environment in crypto assets行情分析.

The liquidity health assessment shows that the liquidity of mainstream coins is good, with BTC and ETH daily trading volumes exceeding 12.9 billion and 8.1 billion USD respectively. Prices are relatively stable, with both having a 24-hour volatility within 1%. The trading depth is sufficient, and the bid-ask spread is very small. These indicators collectively confirm the current health status of the market.

Investment Strategy: Primarily a Volatile Market, with a Bull Market as Support

Short-term trading strategy recommendation: entry points are around BTC 110,000 and ETH 4,100. For take-profit and stop-loss settings, set BTC at ±5% stop-loss and ETH at ±7% stop-loss. In terms of position management, BTC accounts for 50%, ETH for 30%, and cash for 20%. The risk rating is medium risk.

The trend judgment for medium-term investment layout is cautiously bullish. The allocation suggestion is 60% BTC and 40% ETH. Key nodes to pay attention to include the progress of SEC regulation. Scenario analysis shows that in a bull market scenario, the allocation of leading coins should be increased, while in a bear market scenario, it is advisable to maintain ample cash.

In terms of market outlook, the probability of a bull market is 40%, the probability of a ranging market is 50%, and the probability of a bear market is 10%. This forecast indicates that the most likely scenario in the future is a consolidation phase, followed by a continuation of the bull market, with the bear market having the lowest probability. For investors, this means that a strategy focused on defense with some offensive elements should be adopted.

Core risk identification includes: systemic risk from global economic uncertainty, individual coin risk from regulatory policy changes, liquidity risk from sudden market events, and regulatory risk from potential SEC regulatory policies. These risk factors remind investors that even in relatively stable market environments, it is essential to maintain risk awareness and manage positions appropriately.