Gold has outperformed Bitcoin in terms of growth since 2025! The Mayer Multiple predicts that a BTC rebound is imminent.

Since 2025, gold has risen by 54%, silver by 63%, while Bitcoin has only risen by 21%. This situation is similar to past cycles when BTC subsequently surged and outperformed the market. The Mayer Multiple suggests that Bitcoin will experience a rebound, with the BTC/gold and BTC/silver ratios approaching or falling below 1.

What is the Mayer Multiple and how does it work?

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Entrepreneur and monetary scientist Trace Mayer created the Mayer Multiple to track the historical price trends of Bitcoin to identify trends and buying opportunities. It divides the current price of Bitcoin by its 200-day moving average. For example, if the current trading price of Bitcoin is $120,000 and the 200-day moving average price is $100,000, then its Mayer Multiple is 1.2. A ratio above 2.4 typically indicates that Bitcoin is overbought, while a Mayer Multiple of 0.8 tends to suggest that there are attractive buying opportunities.

A Bitcoin trader mentioned the BTC/Gold Mayer Multiple while explaining their bullish stance on cryptocurrencies. This indicator compares the ratio of Bitcoin to gold with its 200-day moving average. Supporters of the multiple believe that if the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple is below 1, it indicates that it is undervalued relative to gold. User X stated that this ratio would only be so low during a Bitcoin crash, suggesting that there is a buying opportunity.

You can increase the complexity of the Mayer Multiple by comparing the ratio of two assets (e.g., Bitcoin and gold). This method not only takes into account the price momentum of Bitcoin itself but also compares it with the traditional safe-haven asset, gold, providing a more complete picture of market sentiment. When Bitcoin performs weakly relative to gold, it often signifies a lower market risk appetite, with funds flowing into safe-haven assets. However, this situation usually does not last long, and once market sentiment improves, funds quickly flow back into high-beta assets like Bitcoin.

Like other indicators, the Mayer Multiple relies on lagging indicators and historical patterns to predict future price trends. The 200-day moving average is a classic long-term trend indicator widely used to determine the medium to long-term direction of an asset. When the price is far below the 200-day average, it usually indicates overselling, while being far above it indicates overbuying. The Mayer Multiple quantifies this concept, allowing investors to more accurately assess the current price relative to historical trends.

Mayer Multiple Key Threshold:

< 0.8: Strong buy signal, Bitcoin is severely undervalued

0.8 - 1.0: Attractive buying opportunity

1.0 - 2.4: Normal trading range

2.4: Overbought warning, may be approaching the top

Historical Patterns of BTC/Gold and BTC/Silver Ratios

(Source: Trading View)

When the price of gold or silver rises faster than Bitcoin over an extended period, it usually indicates that Bitcoin may soon rebound. This relationship can be reflected through the BTC/Gold Mayer Multiple and BTC/Silver Mayer Multiple. Both indicators measure Bitcoin's price performance relative to the 200-day moving average of these precious metals. A Mayer Multiple below 1 means that Bitcoin is undervalued relative to gold or silver, and historically, these moments have often been strong buying opportunities.

The BTC/Golden Mayer multiple fell to 0.70 in November 2022 and to 0.85 in March 2020, both times close to the market bottom for Bitcoin. In the following months, the price of Bitcoin surged more than double. November 2022 coincided with a period of market panic after the FTX collapse, with the price of Bitcoin dropping to around $15,500. At that time, the BTC/Golden Mayer multiple fell to 0.70, after which Bitcoin rose over 150% in 2023, setting a new all-time high in 2024. March 2020 was the peak of market panic triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, with Bitcoin plummeting to $3,800, and the BTC/Golden Mayer multiple dropping to 0.85, after which Bitcoin skyrocketed to $69,000 in 2021.

BTC/Silver Mayer multiple also provided reliable buy signals. In September 2020, when the Bitcoin price was around $10,900, the BTC/Silver Mayer multiple fell below 1, and then soared to nearly $60,000 by April 2021, a rise of about 450%. From the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023, the multiple remained below 1 again, while the Bitcoin price almost doubled that year. These historical cases demonstrate the predictive ability of this indicator.

Recently, the BTC/gold ratio touched 0.84, while the BTC/silver ratio briefly fell below 1 in late October. Even slight fluctuations below that threshold (like 0.98 in past cycles) have proven to be strong entry points for long-term investors. The current reading of 0.84 is very close to the 0.85 from March 2020, and this similarity adds credibility to the bullish narrative. In short, when the ratio between Bitcoin and precious metals falls below 1, it has historically indicated a “buy the dip” window before a significant rebound.

Precious metals lead in 2025, but Bitcoin will catch up

So far this year, gold has risen by 54%, silver by 63%, and Bitcoin by 21%. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin may quickly close this gap and deliver substantial returns in the coming months. This pattern has repeatedly occurred over multiple cycles: precious metals rise first, reflecting market concerns over geopolitical risks and inflation, and then, when risk appetite rebounds, funds rapidly flow into high-beta Bitcoin.

In the long term, the performance of Bitcoin is self-evident: it has risen more than 700% in the past five years, while gold and silver have risen about twice. This huge difference in long-term performance demonstrates Bitcoin's characteristics as a high-growth asset, but in the short term, the relative strength of gold and silver may indicate that the market is in a transition period of risk appetite conversion. Once macro uncertainty fades, Bitcoin tends to make up for the performance gap with precious metals at an astonishing speed.

In addition to the Mayer Multiple signal, the macro environment also supports the upward movement of Bitcoin. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets like Bitcoin, supportive regulatory policies for cryptocurrencies have diminished legal risks for the industry, and the continuously increasing institutional investments provide structural buying support for the market. These factors are creating suitable conditions for Bitcoin to perform well again.

The current macro environment is very similar to that of the second half of 2020. At that time, the Federal Reserve implemented a zero interest rate policy and launched large-scale quantitative easing, leading to a surge in gold and silver, followed by Bitcoin gaining momentum in October 2020, skyrocketing from around $11,000 to $64,000 in April 2021. Now, the Federal Reserve has once again entered a rate-cutting cycle, and institutional adoption is accelerating, history may repeat itself.