Fed's Decision Outlook: ADP Data May Undermine Fed's Confidence in a Rate Cut in December

According to a report from 深潮 TechFlow on October 29, market analyst Giuseppe stated that yesterday the American data processing company ADP released four weeks of U.S. employment data as of October 11, 2025, showing an average weekly increase of 14,250 jobs, which means approximately 57,000 jobs were added during that four-week period. The Dallas Fed estimated at the beginning of October that the current breakeven point is about 30,000 jobs added per month, and 57,000 is well above this level. Due to the lack of government data, the ADP data shows strong rebound signals, which may lead Fed Chairman Powell to be more cautious when hinting at a rate cut in December; if so, this would be seen as a hawkish surprise and significantly impact the market. Additionally, one of the most dovish members of the Fed, Governor Waller (one of the candidates for Fed Chair), has also stated that the ADP data is one of the reasons he supports a rate cut. Recently, he said, “I still believe we should cut rates, but we need to be cautious about it.” ( Jin10 )